Football · China Super League · 01/08, 14:00

Prediction: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng vs Chongqing Tonglianglong

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.57Total

Shenzhen Xinpengcheng1.42

Chongqing Tonglianglong1.16

1X2

42% 28% 30%

Shenzhen Xinpengcheng Draw Chongqing Tonglianglong

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Shenzhen Xinpengcheng 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWWWLLWLDL

Chongqing Tonglianglong 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWWLDDWL

Head-to-head

Shenzhen Xinpengcheng 0–1 Chongqing Tonglianglong (1 last)

Chongqing Tonglianglong2-0Shenzhen Xinpengcheng

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Shenzhen Xinpengcheng 1484 · Chongqing Tonglianglong 1521

	Shenzhen Xinpengcheng	Draw	Chongqing Tonglianglong
Our model	42%	29%	29%
Market	42%	27%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Shenzhen Xinpengcheng	Chongqing Tonglianglong
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.8	1.1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.9	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.2	0.8 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.4	2.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.40

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.20▲	Bet365 2.20
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:03 +7’	2.15	3.40	3.10
14:07 +4’	2.20▲	3.40	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Shenzhen Xinpengcheng 0–0–1 Chongqing Tonglianglong

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/04/26 China Super League	Chongqing Tonglianglong	2-0 HT 0-0	Shenzhen Xinpengcheng

Standings · China Super League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chengdu Rongcheng	20	13	5	2	41	20	44
2	Chongqing Tonglianglong	20	7	8	5	23	22	29
3	Yunnan Yukun	20	8	4	8	40	38	28
4	Dalian Young Boy	19	9	1	9	30	35	28
5	Qingdao West Coast	20	6	10	4	24	29	28
6	Shandong Taishan	20	9	3	8	36	36	24
7	Zhejiang	20	8	5	7	30	34	24
8	Beijing Guoan	19	7	7	5	32	26	23
9	Henan	19	8	3	8	25	24	21
10	Liaoning Ironman	19	6	3	10	25	31	21
11	Shenzhen Xinpengcheng	20	6	2	12	28	37	20
12	Shanghai Port	19	6	6	7	30	26	19
13	Shanghai Shenhua	19	8	5	6	36	31	19
14	Tianjin Jinmen Tigers	19	6	6	7	26	22	14
15	Wuhan Three Towns	19	4	7	8	27	34	14
16	Qingdao Hainiu	20	6	3	11	30	38	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Shenzhen Xinpengcheng	Chongqing Tonglianglong
Yunnan Yukun	3-4 L	0-0 D
Wuhan Three Towns	0-2 L	0-1 L
Qingdao West Coast	3-0 W	2-0 W
Tianjin Jinmen Tigers	0-3 L	1-0 W
Chengdu Rongcheng	2-3 L	1-1 D
Qingdao Hainiu	3-2 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Chongqing Tonglianglong (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Shenzhen Xinpengcheng

DWWWLLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Yunnan Yukun China Super League	1-2	3-4	5	5	L
21/07	Shanghai Port China FA Cup	0-1	1-1	2	4	D
18/07	Wuhan Three Towns China Super League	0-2	0-2	4	2	L
11/07	Qingdao West Coast China Super League	2-0	3-0	5	5	W
04/07	Tianjin Jinmen Tigers China Super League	0-1	0-3	7	5	L
27/06	Chengdu Rongcheng China Super League	0-1	2-3	5	8	L
19/06	Shenzhen Juniors China FA Cup	3-0	3-1	12	5	W
30/05	Qingdao Hainiu China Super League	1-0	3-2	9	5	W
24/05	Shanghai Shenhua China Super League	2-1	2-1	5	4	W
19/05	Dalian Young Boy China Super League	1-1	1-1	8	4	D

Chongqing Tonglianglong

DWLWWLDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Wuhan Three Towns China Super League	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
21/07	Qingdao West Coast China FA Cup	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
18/07	Zhejiang China Super League	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
11/07	Chengdu Rongcheng China Super League	0-1	1-1	1	3	D
04/07	Liaoning Ironman China Super League	1-0	1-3	2	4	L
27/06	Tianjin Jinmen Tigers China Super League	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
20/06	Ningbo Professional FC China FA Cup	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
30/05	Beijing Guoan China Super League	0-1	2-3	4	4	L
24/05	Qingdao Hainiu China Super League	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
20/05	Yunnan Yukun China Super League	0-0	0-0	6	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Shenzhen Xinpengcheng vs Chongqing Tonglianglong?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Shenzhen Xinpengcheng win (42%). Probabilities: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng 42%, draw 28%, Chongqing Tonglianglong 30%.

How many goals are expected in Shenzhen Xinpengcheng vs Chongqing Tonglianglong?

The model expects 2.57 goals (Shenzhen Xinpengcheng 1.42 · Chongqing Tonglianglong 1.16), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Shenzhen Xinpengcheng vs Chongqing Tonglianglong?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.