Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 02/08, 02:00

Prediction: Deportes Limache vs Nublense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

Deportes Limache1.6

Nublense1.27

1X2

44% 27% 29%

Deportes Limache Draw Nublense

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Deportes Limache 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLWDLDWL

Nublense 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDLWWWDWLW

Head-to-head

Deportes Limache 0–2–1 Nublense (3 last)

Nublense1-1Deportes Limache
Deportes Limache0-1Nublense
Nublense1-1Deportes Limache

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportes Limache 1459 · Nublense 1541

	Deportes Limache	Draw	Nublense
Our model	44%	27%	29%
Market	44%	28%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.87 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nublense (rating 1459 vs 1541).
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportes Limache	Nublense
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2	1.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.3	2.7 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.6	4.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.30

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.15
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.44 ★
2	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.2% Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:14 +6’	2.10	3.30	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:20	2.15	3.44	3.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportes Limache 0–2–1 Nublense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/02/26 Chile Liga de Primera	Nublense	1-1 HT 0-1	Deportes Limache
26/07/25 Chile Liga de Primera	Deportes Limache	0-1 HT 0-0	Nublense
23/02/25 Chile Liga de Primera	Nublense	1-1 HT 0-0	Deportes Limache

Standings · Chile Liga de Primera

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Colo Colo	16	13	0	3	32	13	39
2	Universidad Catolica	16	8	3	5	38	23	27
3	Universidad de Chile	15	6	6	3	17	10	24
4	Coquimbo Unido	15	7	3	5	22	18	24
5	Palestino	15	7	3	5	23	21	24
6	Huachipato	16	7	3	6	26	25	24
7	Everton de Vina	15	6	4	5	19	15	22
8	Nublense	15	5	7	3	18	19	22
9	Deportes Limache	16	6	3	7	31	26	21
10	O'Higgins	15	6	2	7	19	22	20
11	La Serena	16	4	7	5	24	28	19
12	Universidad de Concepcion	15	5	4	6	13	26	19
13	Audax Italiano	15	4	4	7	18	21	16
14	Deportes Concepcion	15	4	2	9	14	23	14
15	Cobresal	16	4	2	10	22	32	14
16	Union La Calera	15	3	3	9	14	28	12

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Deportes Limache

LLLLWDLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera	0-0	1-3	8	4	L
06/07	San Marcos De Arica Chile Cup	1-1	4-1	9	8	W
02/07	Coquimbo Unido Chile Cup	0-1	1-1	6	7	D
27/06	Deportes Iquique Chile Cup	0-2	1-4	9	2	L
23/06	Coquimbo Unido Chile Cup	1-0	1-1	1	2	D
20/06	San Marcos De Arica Chile Cup	1-1	3-1	3	7	W
14/06	Deportes Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera	0-1	2-3	3	1	L
08/06	Everton de Vina Chile Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
31/05	Coquimbo Unido Chile Liga de Primera	1-1	2-3	4	6	L
17/05	Universidad Catolica Chile Liga de Primera	0-2	0-2	2	8	L

Nublense

WDLWWWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Palestino Chile Liga de Primera	2-0	2-0	2	5	W
13/07	O'Higgins Chile Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
10/07	O'Higgins Chile Copa de la Liga	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
05/07	Curico Unido Chile Cup	0-0	2-2	6	6	D
01/07	Universidad de Concepcion Chile Cup	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
28/06	Rangers de Talca Chile Cup	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
26/06	Universidad de Concepcion Chile Cup	1-1	4-2	7	4	W
21/06	Curico Unido Chile Cup	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
14/06	Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera	1-2	2-2	10	5	D
07/06	Universidad de Concepcion Chile Copa de la Liga	1-0	2-1	2	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportes Limache vs Nublense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportes Limache win (44%). Probabilities: Deportes Limache 44%, draw 27%, Nublense 29%.

How many goals are expected in Deportes Limache vs Nublense?

The model expects 2.87 goals (Deportes Limache 1.6 · Nublense 1.27), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportes Limache vs Nublense?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.