Football · Cyprus Division 1 · 22/11, 14:00
Prediction: Olympiakos Nicosia vs AEK Larnaca
Team pages: Olympiakos Nicosia · AEK Larnaca
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.86Total
Olympiakos Nicosia0.93
AEK Larnaca1.94
1X2
Olympiakos Nicosia
Draw
AEK Larnaca
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Olympiakos Nicosia
2-6-2 (W-D-L)
AEK Larnaca
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Olympiakos Nicosia
0–2–4
AEK Larnaca
(6 last)
- AEK Larnaca1-1Olympiakos Nicosia
- Olympiakos Nicosia1-4AEK Larnaca
- Olympiakos Nicosia0-2AEK Larnaca
- AEK Larnaca4-2Olympiakos Nicosia
- Olympiakos Nicosia0-0AEK Larnaca
- AEK Larnaca1-0Olympiakos Nicosia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Olympiakos Nicosia 1502 · AEK Larnaca 1592
| Olympiakos Nicosia | Draw | AEK Larnaca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 16% | 24% | 60% |
| Market | 17% | 23% | 60% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AEK Larnaca (rating 1502 vs 1592).
- H2H favours AEK Larnaca: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Olympiakos Nicosia | AEK Larnaca | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.3 | 2.3 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.9 | 2.2 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.2 | 5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Olympiakos Nicosia 0–2–4 AEK Larnaca
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/26 Cyprus Division 1 | AEK Larnaca | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Olympiakos Nicosia |
| 22/11/25 Cyprus Division 1 | Olympiakos Nicosia | 1-4 HT 1-4 | AEK Larnaca |
| 20/01/23 Cyprus Division 1 | Olympiakos Nicosia | 0-2 HT 0-1 | AEK Larnaca |
| 17/10/22 Cyprus Division 1 | AEK Larnaca | 4-2 HT 2-0 | Olympiakos Nicosia |
| 09/02/22 Cyprus Division 1 | Olympiakos Nicosia | 0-0 HT 0-0 | AEK Larnaca |
| 27/09/21 Cyprus Division 1 | AEK Larnaca | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Olympiakos Nicosia |
Standings · Cyprus Division 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEK Larnaca | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 20 |
| 2 | Omonia Nicosia | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 18 |
| 3 | AEL Limassol | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 18 |
| 4 | Apoel Nicosia | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 11 | 17 |
| 5 | Pafos FC | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 16 |
| 6 | Apollon Limassol | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 21 | 11 | 16 |
| 7 | Aris Limassol | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 15 |
| 8 | Omonia 29is Maiou | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 17 | 11 |
| 9 | Olympiakos Nicosia | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 13 | 9 |
| 10 | Nea Salamis Famagusta | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 18 | 8 |
| 11 | Anorthosis Famagusta | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 6 |
| 12 | APK Karmotissa | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 6 |
| 13 | Omonia Aradippou | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 6 |
| 14 | Krasava ENY Ypsonas | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 20 | 5 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Olympiakos Nicosia | AEK Larnaca |
|---|---|---|
| APK Karmotissa | 0-1 L | 4-1 W |
| Krasava ENY Ypsonas | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Omonia Nicosia | 2-2 D | 2-0 W |
| Aris Limassol | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Omonia Aradippou | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Omonia 29is Maiou | 3-3 D | 2-1 W |
| Pafos FC | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Nea Salamis Famagusta | 3-3 D | 4-1 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 6 D 2 L | 5 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: AEK Larnaca (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Olympiakos Nicosia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Apollon Limassol Cyprus Division 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 30/10 | APK Karmotissa Cyprus Division 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 24/10 | Krasava ENY Ypsonas Cyprus Division 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 12 | 4 | D |
| 19/10 | Omonia Nicosia Cyprus Division 1 |
2-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 11/10 | Aris Limassol Cyprus Division 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 10 | L |
| 20/09 | Omonia Aradippou Cyprus Division 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 13/09 | Omonia 29is Maiou Cyprus Division 1 |
1-1 | 3-3 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 07/09 | Pafos FC Cyprus Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 28/08 | Nea Salamis Famagusta Cyprus Division 1 |
1-2 | 3-3 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 15/05 | Anorthosis Famagusta Cyprus Division 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 9 | W |
AEK Larnaca
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11 | APK Karmotissa Cyprus Division 1 |
2-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 31/10 | Krasava ENY Ypsonas Cyprus Division 1 |
0-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 9 | D |
| 26/10 | Omonia Nicosia Cyprus Division 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 18/10 | Aris Limassol Cyprus Division 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 12/10 | Omonia Aradippou Cyprus Division 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 18/09 | Omonia 29is Maiou Cyprus Division 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 13/09 | Pafos FC Cyprus Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 06/09 | Nea Salamis Famagusta Cyprus Division 1 |
2-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | Apoel Nicosia Cyprus Division 1 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 22/05 | Aris Limassol Cyprus Division 1 |
1-0 | 4-3 | 1 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Olympiakos Nicosia vs AEK Larnaca?
According to our model, the most likely result is an AEK Larnaca win (60%). Probabilities: Olympiakos Nicosia 17%, draw 23%, AEK Larnaca 60%.
How many goals are expected in Olympiakos Nicosia vs AEK Larnaca?
The model expects 2.86 goals (Olympiakos Nicosia 0.93 · AEK Larnaca 1.94), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Nicosia vs AEK Larnaca?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.