Football · Thailand Division 2 · 05/09, 13:30

Prediction: Chiangmai United vs Pattaya United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

Chiangmai United1.66

Pattaya United1.51

1X2

40% 26% 33%

Chiangmai United Draw Pattaya United

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Chiangmai United 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLLLWW

Pattaya United 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DWDLWDWDDW

Head-to-head

Chiangmai United 3–1–2 Pattaya United (6 last)

Pattaya United4-1Chiangmai United
Chiangmai United1-2Pattaya United
Pattaya United0-3Chiangmai United
Chiangmai United2-1Pattaya United
Chiangmai United2-0Pattaya United
Pattaya United2-2Chiangmai United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chiangmai United 1454 · Pattaya United 1536

	Chiangmai United	Draw	Pattaya United
Our model	41%	26%	34%
Market	40%	27%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pattaya United (rating 1454 vs 1536).
H2H favours Chiangmai United: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chiangmai United	Pattaya United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2.3	1.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.1	1.6 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.30

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.62 ★
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:42 +7’	2.25	3.30	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:47 +1’	2.62	3.09	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chiangmai United 3–1–2 Pattaya United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Thailand Division 2	Pattaya United	4-1 HT 2-0	Chiangmai United
23/11/25 Thailand Division 2	Chiangmai United	1-2 HT 1-2	Pattaya United
06/04/25 Thailand Division 2	Pattaya United	0-3 HT 0-1	Chiangmai United
14/12/24 Thailand Division 2	Chiangmai United	2-1 HT 0-1	Pattaya United
10/03/24 Thailand Division 2	Chiangmai United	2-0 HT 1-0	Pattaya United
11/11/23 Thailand Division 2	Pattaya United	2-2 HT 1-1	Chiangmai United

Standings · Thailand Division 2

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#	Team	P	D	Pts
1	Muang Thong United	1	1	1
1	Uttaradit FC	1	1	1
3	Chainat FC	0	0	0
3	Chanthaburi FC	0	0	0
3	Chiangmai United	0	0	0
3	Kanchanaburi Power	0	0	0
3	Kasetsart FC	0	0	0
3	Khonkaen United	0	0	0
3	Mahasarakham SBT FC	0	0	0
3	Muang Loei United	0	0	0
3	Nakhon Pathom FC	0	0	0
3	Nakhon Ratchasima	0	0	0
3	Nong Bua Pitchaya	0	0	0
3	Pattaya United	0	0	0
3	Phrae United	0	0	0
3	Police Tero FC	0	0	0
3	PT Satun	0	0	0
3	Songkhla FC	0	0	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chiangmai United	Pattaya United
Kasetsart FC	4-3 W	3-0 W
Nong Bua Pitchaya	3-0 W	1-1 D
Rasi Salai United	1-2 L	1-0 W
Khonkaen United	1-2 L	2-2 D
Nakhon Pathom FC	5-2 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Pattaya United (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chiangmai United

LLWLLLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/04	Kasetsart FC Thailand Division 2	1-1	4-3	1	3	W
18/04	Nong Bua Pitchaya Thailand Division 2	0-0	3-0	5	5	W
04/04	Rasi Salai United Thailand Division 2	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
21/03	Khonkaen United Thailand Division 2	1-0	1-2	5	4	L
14/03	Trat FC Thailand Division 2	0-0	0-1	10	4	L
07/03	Pattaya United Thailand Division 2	0-2	1-4	2	3	L
04/03	Pattani FC Thailand Division 2	0-2	2-4	6	4	L
28/02	Nakhon Pathom FC Thailand Division 2	1-2	5-2	3	4	W
22/02	Nakhon Si United Thailand Division 2	0-1	1-3	3	4	L
17/02	Chanthaburi FC Thailand Division 2	0-0	0-2	3	2	L

Pattaya United

DWDLWDWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/04	Chainat FC Thailand Division 2	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
19/04	Sisaket United Thailand Division 2	0-1	3-3	2	7	D
05/04	Phrae United Thailand Division 2	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
21/03	Kasetsart FC Thailand Division 2	2-0	3-0	5	4	W
14/03	Nong Bua Pitchaya Thailand Division 2	0-0	1-1	0	3	D
07/03	Chiangmai United Thailand Division 2	2-0	4-1	5	3	W
04/03	Mahasarakham SBT FC Thailand Division 2	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
01/03	Khonkaen United Thailand Division 2	1-1	2-2	6	6	D
22/02	Rasi Salai United Thailand Division 2	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
18/02	Nakhon Pathom FC Thailand Division 2	0-0	1-1	5	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chiangmai United vs Pattaya United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chiangmai United win (40%). Probabilities: Chiangmai United 40%, draw 26%, Pattaya United 33%.

How many goals are expected in Chiangmai United vs Pattaya United?

The model expects 3.17 goals (Chiangmai United 1.66 · Pattaya United 1.51), with a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Chiangmai United vs Pattaya United?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.