Football · Brazil Serie C · 25/07, 22:00

Prediction: Guarani vs Inter de Limeira

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

Guarani1.54

Inter de Limeira0.9

1X2

51% 28% 21%

Guarani Draw Inter de Limeira

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Guarani 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWLDDL

Inter de Limeira 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWDWWLDWW

Head-to-head

Guarani 3–1–2 Inter de Limeira (6 last)

Inter de Limeira0-0Guarani
Guarani0-1Inter de Limeira
Inter de Limeira0-5Guarani

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guarani 1521 · Inter de Limeira 1544

	Guarani	Draw	Inter de Limeira
Our model	51%	28%	21%
Market	52%	27%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Guarani: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 12.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guarani	Inter de Limeira
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1	1.1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.2	0.2 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6.2	2.9 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.4	6.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.30

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.02

2 (+0.75)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Pinn 1.82
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.48 ★
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
21:54 +30’	1.73	3.30	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:16	1.71	3.50	4.15
00:16	1.82▲	3.48▼	3.94▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guarani 3–1–2 Inter de Limeira

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/01/25 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Inter de Limeira	0-0 HT 0-0	Guarani
09/02/24 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Guarani	0-1 HT 0-0	Inter de Limeira
25/02/23 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Inter de Limeira	0-5 HT 0-2	Guarani
09/05/21 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Inter de Limeira	1-0 HT 0-0	Guarani
01/08/20 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Inter de Limeira	1-2 HT 1-0	Guarani
22/01/20 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Inter de Limeira	0-4 HT 0-2	Guarani

Standings · Brazil Serie C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Inter de Limeira	14	7	4	3	17	14	25
2	Brusque	14	7	3	4	20	15	24
3	Santa Cruz FC	14	7	3	4	15	10	24
4	Paysandu	14	7	2	5	22	19	23
5	Guarani	14	6	5	3	25	14	23
6	Botafogo PB	14	7	1	6	19	15	22
7	Maringa FC	14	6	4	4	27	24	22
8	Ferroviaria SP	14	6	4	4	15	12	22
9	Caxias RS	14	5	6	3	13	10	21
10	Floresta EC	14	5	5	4	15	14	20
11	Ituano	14	5	4	5	16	16	19
12	Ypiranga RS	14	5	3	6	17	19	18
13	Volta Redonda	14	5	3	6	10	15	18
14	Amazonas FC	14	5	2	7	13	19	17
15	Maranhao	14	4	5	5	11	14	17
16	Figueirense	14	4	5	5	12	18	17
17	Itabaiana	14	4	4	6	12	17	16
18	Barra FC	14	3	6	5	17	16	15
19	AD Confianca	14	3	2	9	8	14	11
20	Anapolis FC	14	2	3	9	9	18	9

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guarani	Inter de Limeira
Paysandu	2-3 L	2-1 W
AD Confianca	0-2 L	1-0 W
Amazonas FC	5-0 W	1-0 W
Maringa FC	5-0 W	2-2 D
Santa Cruz FC	1-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Guarani (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guarani

WWLWWWLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	Paysandu Brazil Serie C	2-0	2-3	2	7	L
05/07	Floresta EC Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	12	7	D
28/06	Figueirense Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
23/06	AD Confianca Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-2	4	7	L
13/06	Caxias RS Brazil Serie C	1-0	2-1	12	6	W
31/05	Amazonas FC Brazil Serie C	3-0	5-0	3	3	W
23/05	Barra FC Brazil Serie C	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
17/05	Ituano Brazil Serie C	1-2	1-3	13	10	L
12/05	Maringa FC Brazil Serie C	3-0	5-0	2	9	W
02/05	Santa Cruz FC Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-0	6	6	W

Inter de Limeira

WLWDWWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	Amazonas FC Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-0	6	11	W
04/07	Maranhao Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
27/06	Maringa FC Brazil Serie C	0-0	2-2	12	5	D
21/06	Ferroviaria SP Brazil Serie C	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
14/06	Paysandu Brazil Serie C	0-0	2-1	3	8	W
31/05	Ypiranga RS Brazil Serie C	0-1	2-1	4	7	W
24/05	Itabaiana Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
19/05	Botafogo PB Brazil Serie C	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
12/05	Santa Cruz FC Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-2	11	9	L
03/05	AD Confianca Brazil Serie C	1-0	1-0	2	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guarani vs Inter de Limeira?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Guarani win (51%). Probabilities: Guarani 51%, draw 28%, Inter de Limeira 21%.

How many goals are expected in Guarani vs Inter de Limeira?

The model expects 2.44 goals (Guarani 1.54 · Inter de Limeira 0.9), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Guarani vs Inter de Limeira?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.