Football · Nicaragua Apertura · 25/07, 03:00
Prediction: Real Esteli vs Matagalpa FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.59Total
Real Esteli1.84
Matagalpa FC0.76
1X2
Real Esteli
Draw
Matagalpa FC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Real Esteli
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Matagalpa FC
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Real Esteli
2–3–1
Matagalpa FC
(6 last)
- Real Esteli0-0Matagalpa FC
- Matagalpa FC1-1Real Esteli
- Matagalpa FC1-0Real Esteli
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Real Esteli 1532 · Matagalpa FC 1478
| Real Esteli | Draw | Matagalpa FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 24% | 14% |
| Market | 64% | 21% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.59 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Esteli (rating 1532 vs 1478).
- H2H favours Real Esteli: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Real Esteli | Matagalpa FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.2 | 1.6 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.9 | 0.6 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.6 | 1.3 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.3 | 4.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Esteli 2–3–1 Matagalpa FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 Nicaragua Clausura | Real Esteli | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Matagalpa FC |
| 23/02/26 Nicaragua Clausura | Matagalpa FC | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Real Esteli |
| 23/11/25 Nicaragua Apertura | Matagalpa FC | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Real Esteli |
| 14/09/25 Nicaragua Apertura | Real Esteli | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Matagalpa FC |
| 07/07/25 Nicaragua Cup | Real Esteli | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Matagalpa FC |
| 12/03/25 Nicaragua Clausura | Matagalpa FC | 2-4 HT 1-4 | Real Esteli |
Standings · Nicaragua Apertura
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HYH Export Sebaco FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Managua FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Jalapa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Diriangen | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 4 | Real Esteli | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 4 | San Marcos FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 4 | UNAN Managua | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | Rancho Santana FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 9 | CD Walter Ferretti | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 | Matagalpa FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Real Esteli | Matagalpa FC |
|---|---|---|
| Diriangen | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Jalapa | 3-1 W | 3-1 W |
| HYH Export Sebaco FC | 3-2 W | 0-3 L |
| CD Walter Ferretti | 2-4 L | 4-0 W |
| Managua FC | 2-1 W | 4-2 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 1 L | 3 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Real Esteli
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | UNAN Managua Nicaragua Apertura |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 1 | D |
| 17/05 | Diriangen Nicaragua Clausura |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 10/05 | Diriangen Nicaragua Clausura |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 07/05 | Jalapa Nicaragua Clausura |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 03/05 | Jalapa Nicaragua Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 4 | D |
| 26/04 | Matagalpa FC Nicaragua Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 20/04 | HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Clausura |
1-2 | 3-2 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 16/04 | CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Clausura |
1-3 | 2-4 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 12/04 | Diriangen Nicaragua Clausura |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 9 | L |
| 09/04 | Managua FC Nicaragua Clausura |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 8 | W |
Matagalpa FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | HYH Export Sebaco FC Nicaragua Apertura |
0-2 | 0-3 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 05/07 | Jalapa Nicaragua Cup |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 07/05 | Diriangen Nicaragua Clausura |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 03/05 | Diriangen Nicaragua Clausura |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 30/04 | Managua FC Nicaragua Clausura |
1-0 | 4-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Real Esteli Nicaragua Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 19/04 | CD Walter Ferretti Nicaragua Clausura |
2-0 | 4-0 | 0 | 7 | W |
| 16/04 | Managua FC Nicaragua Clausura |
0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 12/04 | Jalapa Nicaragua Clausura |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 09/04 | Diriangen Nicaragua Clausura |
0-0 | 2-3 | 5 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Real Esteli vs Matagalpa FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Esteli win (63%). Probabilities: Real Esteli 63%, draw 22%, Matagalpa FC 15%.
How many goals are expected in Real Esteli vs Matagalpa FC?
The model expects 2.59 goals (Real Esteli 1.84 · Matagalpa FC 0.76), with a 59% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Real Esteli vs Matagalpa FC?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.