Football · El Salvador Apertura · 11/09, 04:00

Prediction: Alianza FC vs Fuerte San Francisco

Team pages: Alianza FC · Fuerte San Francisco

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

Alianza FC1.86

Fuerte San Francisco0.8

1X2

62% 24% 15%

Alianza FC Draw Fuerte San Francisco

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Alianza FC 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

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Fuerte San Francisco 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Alianza FC 6–0 Fuerte San Francisco (6 last)

Fuerte San Francisco0-1Alianza FC
Alianza FC3-2Fuerte San Francisco
Fuerte San Francisco1-3Alianza FC
Alianza FC1-0Fuerte San Francisco
Alianza FC2-0Fuerte San Francisco
Fuerte San Francisco0-1Alianza FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alianza FC 1575 · Fuerte San Francisco 1446

	Alianza FC	Draw	Fuerte San Francisco
Our model	61%	24%	14%
Market	62%	23%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alianza FC (rating 1575 vs 1446).
H2H favours Alianza FC: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alianza FC	Fuerte San Francisco
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1	0.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6.1	1.8 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.6	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.45

X3.90

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.77

2 (+1)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.45	Bet365 1.45
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
01:06 +6’	1.45	3.90	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza FC 6–0–0 Fuerte San Francisco

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/05/26 El Salvador Clausura	Fuerte San Francisco	0-1 HT 0-1	Alianza FC
08/03/26 El Salvador Clausura	Alianza FC	3-2 HT 1-0	Fuerte San Francisco
16/11/25 El Salvador Apertura	Fuerte San Francisco	1-3 HT 0-1	Alianza FC
14/09/25 El Salvador Clausura	Alianza FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Fuerte San Francisco
19/05/25 El Salvador Clausura	Alianza FC	2-0 HT 0-0	Fuerte San Francisco
15/05/25 El Salvador Clausura	Fuerte San Francisco	0-1 HT 0-0	Alianza FC

Standings · El Salvador Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD FAS	8	5	1	2	14	7	16
2	Internacional Santa Tecla	8	4	3	1	12	6	15
3	CD Luis Angel Firpo	7	4	2	1	12	4	14
4	Municipal Limeno	8	4	1	3	12	9	13
5	AD Isidro Metapan	8	4	1	3	11	8	13
6	CD Platense Zacatecoluca	8	3	3	2	10	10	12
7	Alianza FC	7	2	3	2	9	9	9
8	Atlético Balboa	8	2	3	3	8	11	9
9	CD Aguila	8	1	4	3	12	13	7
10	CD Cacahuatique	8	1	4	3	11	14	7
11	Fuerte San Francisco	8	1	3	4	5	13	6
12	CD INCA Aruba	8	1	2	5	4	16	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alianza FC	Fuerte San Francisco
CD Aguila	2-2 D	1-4 L
Atlético Balboa	2-0 W	0-1 L
CD Platense Zacatecoluca	2-2 D	1-1 D
AD Isidro Metapan	0-2 L	1-0 W
CD Cacahuatique	0-0 D	0-0 D
Internacional Santa Tecla	0-2 L	2-2 D
CD Luis Angel Firpo	0-0 D	0-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 2 L	1 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Alianza FC (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alianza FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-2	5	9	D
30/08	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	0-0	2-0	11	4	W
26/08	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-2	6	4	D
23/08	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
16/08	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
09/08	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-2	4	0	L
26/07	CD INCA El Salvador Apertura	1-0	3-1	5	5	W
21/12	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	9	5	D
14/12	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
07/12	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	2-0	2-1	5	8	W

Fuerte San Francisco

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-1	1	1	L
30/08	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	1-1	1-4	2	6	L
23/08	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
15/08	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-0	8	0	W
09/08	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
01/08	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	2-1	2-2	4	10	D
30/07	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-2	0-4	1	2	L
26/07	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-1	2	2	D
16/11	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-3	6	4	L
09/11	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-1	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alianza FC vs Fuerte San Francisco?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alianza FC win (62%). Probabilities: Alianza FC 62%, draw 24%, Fuerte San Francisco 15%.

How many goals are expected in Alianza FC vs Fuerte San Francisco?

The model expects 2.66 goals (Alianza FC 1.86 · Fuerte San Francisco 0.8), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Alianza FC vs Fuerte San Francisco?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.