Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · 14/11, 16:30
Prediction: UD Ourense vs Merida
Team pages: UD Ourense · Merida
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.43Total
UD Ourense1.03
Merida1.4
1X2
UD Ourense
Draw
Merida
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
UD Ourense
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Merida
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · UD Ourense 1448 · Merida 1504
| UD Ourense | Draw | Merida | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 26% | 29% | 44% |
| Market | 27% | 28% | 45% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Merida (rating 1448 vs 1504).
- Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| UD Ourense | Merida | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.4 / 1.5 | 1.7 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0 / 0.7 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/40/60% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 2.6 | 2 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.7 | 5 / 0.7 |
Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugo | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 9 | 28 |
| 2 | UD Logrones | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 14 | 23 |
| 3 | Pontevedra | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Real Aviles CF | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 15 | 17 |
| 5 | Mirandes | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 12 | 17 |
| 6 | Racing Ferrol | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 17 |
| 7 | CD Extremadura | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 15 | 16 |
| 8 | Merida | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 14 | 16 |
| 9 | Athletic Bilbao B | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 15 | 15 |
| 10 | Cacereno | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 15 |
| 11 | Ponferradina | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 15 |
| 12 | Barakaldo | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 14 |
| 13 | Real Unión | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 19 | 13 |
| 14 | Cultural Leonesa | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 13 |
| 15 | Unionistas de Salamanca CF | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 18 | 13 |
| 16 | Zamora CF | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 12 |
| 17 | CD Coria | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 17 | 12 |
| 18 | Deportivo Fabril | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 19 | 11 |
| 19 | Arenas Club de Getxo | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 23 | 11 |
| 20 | UD Ourense | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 8 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | UD Ourense | Merida |
|---|---|---|
| Pontevedra | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Cultural Leonesa | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Arenas Club de Getxo | 0-2 L | 4-0 W |
| Cacereno | 0-0 D | 2-0 W |
| UD Logrones | 0-3 L | 3-5 L |
| Mirandes | 0-2 L | 3-4 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 4 L | 3 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Merida (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
UD Ourense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Pontevedra Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 9 | L |
| 01/11 | Cultural Leonesa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 24/10 | Arenas Club de Getxo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 18/10 | Real Aviles CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 10/10 | Barakaldo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 03/10 | Real Unión Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 27/09 | Cacereno Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 19/09 | Unionistas de Salamanca CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 12/09 | UD Logrones Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 05/09 | Mirandes Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
Merida
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Athletic Bilbao B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 01/11 | Lugo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-2 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 25/10 | CD Coria Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 18/10 | Arenas Club de Getxo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 11/10 | Pontevedra Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 04/10 | Cacereno Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 27/09 | UD Logrones Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-2 | 3-5 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 19/09 | Ponferradina Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 12/09 | Mirandes Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
2-2 | 3-4 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 06/09 | Cultural Leonesa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in UD Ourense vs Merida?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Merida win (45%). Probabilities: UD Ourense 27%, draw 29%, Merida 45%.
How many goals are expected in UD Ourense vs Merida?
The model expects 2.43 goals (UD Ourense 1.03 · Merida 1.4), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in UD Ourense vs Merida?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.