Football · Brazil Serie A · 29/07, 22:00

Prediction: Sao Paulo vs Santos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.56Total

Sao Paulo1.51

Santos1.05

1X2

47% 28% 25%

Sao Paulo Draw Santos

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sao Paulo 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DDLLLDDWLL

Santos 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDLWWWLW

Head-to-head

Sao Paulo 2–1–3 Santos (6 last)

Santos1-1Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo2-0Santos
Santos1-0Sao Paulo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sao Paulo 1475 · Santos 1538

	Sao Paulo	Draw	Santos
Our model	47%	28%	25%
Market	47%	28%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.56 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Santos (rating 1475 vs 1538).
H2H favours Santos: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sao Paulo	Santos
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.5	2.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.4	2.1 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	4.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.30

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.05

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
18:51 +1’	2.00	3.30	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sao Paulo 2–1–3 Santos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/02/26 Brazil Serie A	Santos	1-1 HT 1-0	Sao Paulo
01/02/26 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Sao Paulo	2-0 HT 0-0	Santos
22/09/25 Brazil Serie A	Santos	1-0 HT 0-0	Sao Paulo
20/04/25 Brazil Serie A	Sao Paulo	2-1 HT 2-1	Santos
02/02/25 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Santos	3-1 HT 1-1	Sao Paulo
14/02/24 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Sao Paulo	0-1 HT 0-0	Santos

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	19	13	5	1	33	14	44
2	Flamengo	18	11	4	3	35	16	37
3	Athletico Paranaense	19	10	3	6	26	19	33
4	Fluminense	19	9	5	5	29	24	32
5	Bragantino	19	9	3	7	26	20	30
6	EC Bahia	19	8	6	5	28	24	30
7	Corinthians	19	7	6	6	21	19	27
8	Cruzeiro	19	7	6	6	26	29	27
9	Botafogo	19	7	5	7	33	32	26
10	Coritiba	19	7	5	7	25	27	26
11	Vitoria	19	7	5	7	22	25	26
12	Sao Paulo	19	7	4	8	24	22	25
13	Atletico Mineiro	19	7	4	8	23	24	25
14	Internacional	19	5	6	8	22	24	21
15	Santos	19	5	6	8	27	31	21
16	Gremio	19	5	6	8	21	25	21
17	Vasco da Gama	19	5	5	9	22	30	20
18	Mirassol	18	5	4	9	20	25	19
19	Remo	19	4	6	9	21	32	18
20	Chapecoense	19	1	6	12	17	39	9

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Sao Paulo

DDLLLDDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	7	1	L
01/06	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
27/05	Boston River Copa Sudamericana	2-0	2-0	7	3	W
23/05	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	4	8	D
20/05	Millonarios Copa Sudamericana	1-0	1-1	7	7	D
17/05	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-2	5	6	L
14/05	EC Juventude Copa do Brasil	0-0	1-3	4	4	L
10/05	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-3	7	8	L
08/05	O'Higgins Copa Sudamericana	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
03/05	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-2	14	5	D

Santos

WWLDLWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	UCV Copa Sudamericana	1-0	4-1	6	4	W
17/07	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	6	6	L
04/07	Uniao Sao Joao America Friendlies	0-0	3-0	10	0	W
31/05	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-1	1	8	W
27/05	Deportivo Cuenca Copa Sudamericana	1-0	3-0	3	6	W
24/05	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-3	5	4	L
21/05	San Lorenzo Copa Sudamericana	2-0	2-2	2	6	D
17/05	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-3	0-3	3	6	L
14/05	Coritiba Copa do Brasil	2-0	2-0	1	6	W
10/05	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-0	7	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sao Paulo vs Santos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sao Paulo win (47%). Probabilities: Sao Paulo 47%, draw 28%, Santos 25%.

How many goals are expected in Sao Paulo vs Santos?

The model expects 2.56 goals (Sao Paulo 1.51 · Santos 1.05), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Santos?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.