Football · Brazil Serie A · 29/07, 22:00
Prediction: Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.78Total
Chapecoense1.27
Vasco da Gama1.5
1X2
Chapecoense
Draw
Vasco da Gama
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Chapecoense
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Vasco da Gama
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Chapecoense
0–4–2
Vasco da Gama
(6 last)
- Vasco da Gama1-1Chapecoense
- Vasco da Gama0-0Chapecoense
- Chapecoense0-0Vasco da Gama
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chapecoense 1493 · Vasco da Gama 1457
| Chapecoense | Draw | Vasco da Gama | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| Market | 30% | 29% | 41% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Vasco da Gama: 2-4-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chapecoense | Vasco da Gama | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.8 | 1.2 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1 | 0.6 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 40/10/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.7 | 2.3 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.2 | 3.9 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chapecoense 0–4–2 Vasco da Gama
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/02/26 Brazil Serie A | Vasco da Gama | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Chapecoense |
| 31/07/22 Brazil Serie B | Vasco da Gama | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Chapecoense |
| 23/04/22 Brazil Serie B | Chapecoense | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Vasco da Gama |
| 08/12/19 Brazil Serie A | Vasco da Gama | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Chapecoense |
| 15/09/19 Brazil Serie A | Chapecoense | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Vasco da Gama |
| 27/08/18 Brazil Serie A | Vasco da Gama | 3-1 HT 0-0 | Chapecoense |
Standings · Brazil Serie A
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 19 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 33 | 14 | 44 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 35 | 16 | 37 |
| 3 | Athletico Paranaense | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 19 | 33 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 29 | 24 | 32 |
| 5 | Bragantino | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 20 | 30 |
| 6 | EC Bahia | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 28 | 24 | 30 |
| 7 | Corinthians | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 21 | 19 | 27 |
| 8 | Cruzeiro | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 26 | 29 | 27 |
| 9 | Botafogo | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 33 | 32 | 26 |
| 10 | Coritiba | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 25 | 27 | 26 |
| 11 | Vitoria | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 25 | 26 |
| 12 | Sao Paulo | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 24 | 22 | 25 |
| 13 | Atletico Mineiro | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
| 14 | Internacional | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 22 | 24 | 21 |
| 15 | Santos | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 27 | 31 | 21 |
| 16 | Gremio | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 25 | 21 |
| 17 | Vasco da Gama | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 30 | 20 |
| 18 | Mirassol | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 25 | 19 |
| 19 | Remo | 19 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 32 | 18 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 19 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 17 | 39 | 9 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chapecoense
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Flamengo Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 18/07 | EC Bahia Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 05/07 | Gremio America Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 07/06 | Avai Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste |
1-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 04/06 | Avai Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste |
0-3 | 0-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 31/05 | Palmeiras Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 28/05 | Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste |
1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 24/05 | Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 21/05 | Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 17/05 | Remo Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
Vasco da Gama
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Independiente Medellin Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 17/07 | Vitoria Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 31/05 | Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 28/05 | Barracas Central Copa Sudamericana |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 25/05 | Bragantino Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 21/05 | Olimpia Asuncion Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 16/05 | Internacional Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 1-4 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 14/05 | Paysandu Copa do Brasil |
2-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 11/05 | Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 07/05 | Audax Italiano Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Vasco da Gama win (41%). Probabilities: Chapecoense 31%, draw 28%, Vasco da Gama 41%.
How many goals are expected in Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama?
The model expects 2.78 goals (Chapecoense 1.27 · Vasco da Gama 1.5), with a 56% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.