Football · Brazil Serie A · 29/07, 22:00

Prediction: Botafogo vs Gremio

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.25Total

Botafogo2.04

Gremio1.21

1X2

55% 25% 20%

Botafogo Draw Gremio

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Botafogo 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWDLWWDWLW

Gremio 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDWWDLWLWL

Head-to-head

Botafogo 2–2–2 Gremio (6 last)

Gremio5-3Botafogo
Botafogo3-2Gremio
Gremio1-1Botafogo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Botafogo 1530 · Gremio 1533

	Botafogo	Draw	Gremio
Our model	56%	23%	21%
Market	54%	26%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.25 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Botafogo	Gremio
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.2	1.9 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/0/40%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.9	2.4 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.2	5.1 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.60

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
18:51 +1’	1.73	3.60	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Botafogo 2–2–2 Gremio

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/02/26 Brazil Serie A	Gremio	5-3 HT 1-2	Botafogo
22/11/25 Brazil Serie A	Botafogo	3-2 HT 2-0	Gremio
25/09/25 Brazil Serie A	Gremio	1-1 HT 0-0	Botafogo
29/09/24 Brazil Serie A	Botafogo	0-0 HT 0-0	Gremio
16/06/24 Brazil Serie A	Gremio	1-2 HT 1-1	Botafogo
10/11/23 Brazil Serie A	Botafogo	3-4 HT 2-1	Gremio

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	19	13	5	1	33	14	44
2	Flamengo	18	11	4	3	35	16	37
3	Athletico Paranaense	19	10	3	6	26	19	33
4	Fluminense	19	9	5	5	29	24	32
5	Bragantino	19	9	3	7	26	20	30
6	EC Bahia	19	8	6	5	28	24	30
7	Corinthians	19	7	6	6	21	19	27
8	Cruzeiro	19	7	6	6	26	29	27
9	Botafogo	19	7	5	7	33	32	26
10	Coritiba	19	7	5	7	25	27	26
11	Vitoria	19	7	5	7	22	25	26
12	Sao Paulo	19	7	4	8	24	22	25
13	Atletico Mineiro	19	7	4	8	23	24	25
14	Internacional	19	5	6	8	22	24	21
15	Santos	19	5	6	8	27	31	21
16	Gremio	19	5	6	8	21	25	21
17	Vasco da Gama	19	5	5	9	22	30	20
18	Mirassol	18	5	4	9	20	25	19
19	Remo	19	4	6	9	21	32	18
20	Chapecoense	19	1	6	12	17	39	9

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Botafogo	Gremio
Santos	2-1 W	3-2 W
EC Bahia	1-2 L	1-1 D
Corinthians	3-1 W	1-3 L
Chapecoense	0-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Gremio (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Botafogo

LWDLWWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Santos Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
30/05	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	4	9	L
28/05	Caracas Copa Sudamericana	0-1	3-1	4	5	W
23/05	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	3	8	D
21/05	Independiente Petrolero Copa Sudamericana	1-0	3-0	5	3	W
17/05	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	2-1	3-1	3	7	W
14/05	Chapecoense Copa do Brasil	0-2	0-2	7	6	L
10/05	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
07/05	Racing Club Copa Sudamericana	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
02/05	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	9	4	L

Gremio

WDWWDLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-2	4	4	L
12/07	Cruzeiro Club Friendly List	2-1	3-1	–	–	W
05/07	Chapecoense America Friendlies	0-2	1-2	9	4	L
27/06	FC Cascavel America Friendlies	–	2-1	–	–	W
30/05	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-3	4	6	L
27/05	Torque Copa Sudamericana	0-1	2-2	7	5	D
24/05	Santos Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-2	8	4	W
21/05	Palestino Copa Sudamericana	1-0	2-0	3	7	W
17/05	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	3	8	D
15/05	AD Confianca Copa do Brasil	1-0	3-0	2	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Botafogo vs Gremio?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Botafogo win (55%). Probabilities: Botafogo 55%, draw 25%, Gremio 20%.

How many goals are expected in Botafogo vs Gremio?

The model expects 3.25 goals (Botafogo 2.04 · Gremio 1.21), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Gremio?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.