Football · Brazil Serie A · 29/07, 22:00
Prediction: Atletico Mineiro vs Bragantino
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.34Total
Atletico Mineiro1.33
Bragantino1
1X2
Atletico Mineiro
Draw
Bragantino
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Atletico Mineiro
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Bragantino
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Atletico Mineiro
4–2
Bragantino
(6 last)
- Bragantino1-0Atletico Mineiro
- Bragantino2-0Atletico Mineiro
- Atletico Mineiro2-1Bragantino
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Atletico Mineiro 1515 · Bragantino 1583
| Atletico Mineiro | Draw | Bragantino | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 30% | 27% |
| Market | 44% | 28% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bragantino (rating 1515 vs 1583).
- H2H favours Atletico Mineiro: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Atletico Mineiro | Bragantino | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.9 | 1.5 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.3 | 0.8 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 56/33/11% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.4 | 1.8 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.4 | 4.1 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Mineiro 4–0–2 Bragantino
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/02/26 Brazil Serie A | Bragantino | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Atletico Mineiro |
| 16/11/25 Brazil Serie A | Bragantino | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Atletico Mineiro |
| 03/08/25 Brazil Serie A | Atletico Mineiro | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Bragantino |
| 22/09/24 Brazil Serie A | Atletico Mineiro | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Bragantino |
| 12/06/24 Brazil Serie A | Bragantino | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Atletico Mineiro |
| 26/10/23 Brazil Serie A | Bragantino | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Atletico Mineiro |
Standings · Brazil Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 19 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 33 | 14 | 44 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 35 | 16 | 37 |
| 3 | Athletico Paranaense | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 19 | 33 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 29 | 24 | 32 |
| 5 | Bragantino | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 20 | 30 |
| 6 | EC Bahia | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 28 | 24 | 30 |
| 7 | Corinthians | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 21 | 19 | 27 |
| 8 | Cruzeiro | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 26 | 29 | 27 |
| 9 | Botafogo | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 33 | 32 | 26 |
| 10 | Coritiba | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 25 | 27 | 26 |
| 11 | Vitoria | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 25 | 26 |
| 12 | Sao Paulo | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 24 | 22 | 25 |
| 13 | Atletico Mineiro | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
| 14 | Internacional | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 22 | 24 | 21 |
| 15 | Santos | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 27 | 31 | 21 |
| 16 | Gremio | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 25 | 21 |
| 17 | Vasco da Gama | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 30 | 20 |
| 18 | Mirassol | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 25 | 19 |
| 19 | Remo | 19 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 32 | 18 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 19 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 17 | 39 | 9 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Atletico Mineiro | Bragantino |
|---|---|---|
| Vasco da Gama | 1-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Mirassol | 3-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Atletico Mineiro
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | EC Bahia Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 31/05 | Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 28/05 | Academia Puerto Cabello Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 24/05 | Corinthians Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 22/05 | Cienciano Copa Sudamericana |
2-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 16/05 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 14/05 | Ceara Copa do Brasil |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 06/05 | Juventud De Las Piedras Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 03/05 | Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A |
2-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 12 | W |
Bragantino
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Sporting Cristal Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 18/07 | Fluminense Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 11/07 | Athletico Paranaense America Friendlies |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 31/05 | Internacional Brazil Serie A |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 28/05 | Carabobo Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 25/05 | Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 21/05 | River Plate Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 17/05 | Vitoria Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 14/05 | Mirassol Copa do Brasil |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 10/05 | Santos Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Atletico Mineiro vs Bragantino?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Mineiro win (43%). Probabilities: Atletico Mineiro 43%, draw 29%, Bragantino 27%.
How many goals are expected in Atletico Mineiro vs Bragantino?
The model expects 2.34 goals (Atletico Mineiro 1.33 · Bragantino 1), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Atletico Mineiro vs Bragantino?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.