Football · Italy Serie B · 21/11, 15:00

Prediction: Carrarese vs Virtus Entella

Team pages: Carrarese · Virtus Entella

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.26Total

Carrarese1.23

Virtus Entella1.03

1X2

39% 31% 30%

Carrarese Draw Virtus Entella

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Carrarese 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLWWLWLL

Virtus Entella 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDWDDWLDLL

Head-to-head

Carrarese 4–1–1 Virtus Entella (6 last)

Virtus Entella0-1Carrarese
Virtus Entella2-1Carrarese
Carrarese3-1Virtus Entella
Virtus Entella0-0Carrarese
Virtus Entella1-3Carrarese
Carrarese2-0Virtus Entella

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Carrarese 1477 · Virtus Entella 1461

	Carrarese	Draw	Virtus Entella
Our model	39%	31%	30%
Market	39%	31%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Carrarese: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Carrarese	Virtus Entella
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.2	1.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.5	1.8 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	4.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.00

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.18
2	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.35 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
23:49 +34’	2.35	3.00	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:12 +10’	2.44	3.15	3.12
10:12 +1’	2.30▼	3.18▲	3.35▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Carrarese 4–1–1 Virtus Entella

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/08/26 Europe Friendlies	Virtus Entella	0-1 HT 0-0	Carrarese
08/05/26 Italy Serie B	Virtus Entella	2-1 HT 1-0	Carrarese
14/12/25 Italy Serie B	Carrarese	3-1 HT 0-0	Virtus Entella
28/07/24 Europe Friendlies	Virtus Entella	0-0 HT 0-0	Carrarese
10/02/24 Italy Serie C Group B	Virtus Entella	1-3 HT 1-1	Carrarese
30/09/23 Italy Serie C Group B	Carrarese	2-0 HT 1-0	Virtus Entella

Standings · Italy Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palermo	11	8	3	0	25	13	27
2	Modena	11	7	2	2	20	10	23
3	Ascoli	11	5	5	1	17	7	20
4	Mantova	11	5	4	2	15	11	19
5	Verona	11	4	4	3	19	13	16
6	Avellino	11	4	4	3	16	11	16
7	Benevento	11	4	4	3	15	11	16
8	Pisa	11	4	4	3	20	17	16
9	Cremonese	11	4	3	4	14	12	15
10	Sudtirol	11	3	6	2	13	12	15
11	Padova	11	4	3	4	12	13	15
12	Cesena	11	3	6	2	12	14	15
13	Juve Stabia	11	4	4	3	12	11	12
14	Sampdoria	11	3	2	6	11	18	11
15	Arezzo	11	3	2	6	9	20	11
16	Virtus Entella	11	2	4	5	11	14	10
17	Carrarese	11	3	1	7	9	14	10
18	Empoli	11	2	3	6	12	19	9
19	Vicenza	11	2	3	6	14	24	9
20	Catanzaro	11	1	3	7	11	23	6

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Carrarese	Virtus Entella
Sampdoria	0-1 L	0-2 L
Modena	2-1 W	0-2 L
Padova	2-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Carrarese (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Carrarese

DLLLWWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Sampdoria Italy Serie B	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
01/11	Verona Italy Serie B	0-3	0-3	9	1	L
28/10	Arezzo Italy Serie B	0-0	2-1	4	7	W
25/10	Palermo Italy Serie B	0-1	1-2	7	2	L
17/10	Modena Italy Serie B	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
11/10	Padova Italy Serie B	1-0	2-0	1	5	W
19/09	Benevento Italy Serie B	0-0	0-1	11	4	L
12/09	Catanzaro Italy Serie B	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
05/09	Empoli Italy Serie B	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
29/08	Ascoli Italy Serie B	0-0	1-1	9	7	D

Virtus Entella

LDWDDWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Modena Italy Serie B	0-2	0-2	3	6	L
31/10	Sampdoria Italy Serie B	0-2	0-2	2	6	L
27/10	Avellino Italy Serie B	1-0	1-1	1	5	D
24/10	Mantova Italy Serie B	0-1	0-1	5	10	L
17/10	Padova Italy Serie B	0-1	2-1	6	2	W
10/10	Juve Stabia Italy Serie B	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
19/09	Cremonese Italy Serie B	0-0	0-0	3	1	D
11/09	Pisa Italy Serie B	3-0	4-1	2	4	W
06/09	Vicenza Italy Serie B	1-1	2-2	4	5	D
29/08	Cesena Italy Serie B	1-2	1-2	6	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Carrarese vs Virtus Entella?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Carrarese win (39%). Probabilities: Carrarese 39%, draw 31%, Virtus Entella 30%.

How many goals are expected in Carrarese vs Virtus Entella?

The model expects 2.26 goals (Carrarese 1.23 · Virtus Entella 1.03), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Virtus Entella?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.