Football · Italy Serie B · 21/11, 15:00

Prediction: Sudtirol vs Cremonese

Team pages: Sudtirol · Cremonese

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.4Total

Sudtirol1.05

Cremonese1.36

1X2

27% 30% 42%

Sudtirol Draw Cremonese

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Sudtirol 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DWDWDLDLDD

Cremonese 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWDDDLLWWW

Head-to-head

Sudtirol 2–1–3 Cremonese (6 last)

Cremonese3-1Sudtirol
Sudtirol0-4Cremonese
Sudtirol3-0Cremonese
Cremonese0-1Sudtirol
Cremonese2-1Sudtirol
Sudtirol1-1Cremonese

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sudtirol 1473 · Cremonese 1535

	Sudtirol	Draw	Cremonese
Our model	28%	30%	43%
Market	27%	31%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cremonese (rating 1473 vs 1535).
H2H favours Cremonese: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sudtirol	Cremonese
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	1.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.3	1.2 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.00

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.88

2 (-0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.52
X	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.23 ★
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
23:57 +25’	3.40	3.00	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:12 +10’	3.52	3.23	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sudtirol 2–1–3 Cremonese

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
09/02/25 Italy Serie B	Cremonese	3-1 HT 1-0	Sudtirol
30/11/24 Italy Serie B	Sudtirol	0-4 HT 0-1	Cremonese
16/03/24 Italy Serie B	Sudtirol	3-0 HT 1-0	Cremonese
21/10/23 Italy Serie B	Cremonese	0-1 HT 0-0	Sudtirol
09/04/16 Italy Serie C Group A	Cremonese	2-1 HT 1-0	Sudtirol
29/11/15 Italy Serie C Group A	Sudtirol	1-1 HT 0-0	Cremonese

Standings · Italy Serie B

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palermo	11	8	3	0	25	13	27
2	Modena	11	7	2	2	20	10	23
3	Ascoli	11	5	5	1	17	7	20
4	Mantova	11	5	4	2	15	11	19
5	Verona	11	4	4	3	19	13	16
6	Avellino	11	4	4	3	16	11	16
7	Benevento	11	4	4	3	15	11	16
8	Pisa	11	4	4	3	20	17	16
9	Cremonese	11	4	3	4	14	12	15
10	Sudtirol	11	3	6	2	13	12	15
11	Padova	11	4	3	4	12	13	15
12	Cesena	11	3	6	2	12	14	15
13	Juve Stabia	11	4	4	3	12	11	12
14	Sampdoria	11	3	2	6	11	18	11
15	Arezzo	11	3	2	6	9	20	11
16	Virtus Entella	11	2	4	5	11	14	10
17	Carrarese	11	3	1	7	9	14	10
18	Empoli	11	2	3	6	12	19	9
19	Vicenza	11	2	3	6	14	24	9
20	Catanzaro	11	1	3	7	11	23	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sudtirol	Cremonese
Pisa	2-2 D	1-3 L
Cesena	1-1 D	2-2 D
Padova	0-2 L	3-1 W
Juve Stabia	0-3 L	0-1 L
Arezzo	4-1 W	0-0 D
Modena	1-1 D	0-3 L
Benevento	1-1 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sudtirol

DWDWDLDLDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Pisa Italy Serie B	1-1	2-2	4	5	D
31/10	Cesena Italy Serie B	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
27/10	Padova Italy Serie B	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
24/10	Sampdoria Italy Serie B	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
18/10	Juve Stabia Italy Serie B	0-1	0-3	3	6	L
10/10	Ascoli Italy Serie B	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
20/09	Arezzo Italy Serie B	1-0	4-1	3	4	W
12/09	Modena Italy Serie B	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
05/09	Catanzaro Italy Serie B	0-0	2-0	3	2	W
30/08	Benevento Italy Serie B	0-0	1-1	1	2	D

Cremonese

LWDDDLLWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Vicenza Italy Serie B	1-1	4-1	3	3	W
31/10	Benevento Italy Serie B	1-0	2-0	1	6	W
27/10	Mantova Italy Serie B	1-0	2-0	2	7	W
24/10	Juve Stabia Italy Serie B	0-1	0-1	6	1	L
17/10	Pisa Italy Serie B	1-1	1-3	6	7	L
10/10	Arezzo Italy Serie B	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
19/09	Virtus Entella Italy Serie B	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
12/09	Cesena Italy Serie B	0-1	2-2	4	5	D
06/09	Padova Italy Serie B	2-1	3-1	3	0	W
28/08	Modena Italy Serie B	0-2	0-3	8	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sudtirol vs Cremonese?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Cremonese win (42%). Probabilities: Sudtirol 27%, draw 30%, Cremonese 42%.

How many goals are expected in Sudtirol vs Cremonese?

The model expects 2.4 goals (Sudtirol 1.05 · Cremonese 1.36), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Cremonese?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.