Football · Italy Serie B · 21/11, 17:15

Prediction: Catanzaro vs Palermo

Team pages: Catanzaro · Palermo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.41Total

Catanzaro1.38

Palermo2.04

1X2

24% 25% 51%

Catanzaro Draw Palermo

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Catanzaro 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLLDLDDL

Palermo 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWWDWD

Head-to-head

Catanzaro 3–3 Palermo (6 last)

Palermo2-0Catanzaro
Catanzaro3-0Palermo
Palermo3-2Catanzaro
Catanzaro1-0Palermo
Catanzaro1-3Palermo
Palermo1-2Catanzaro

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Catanzaro 1432 · Palermo 1603

	Catanzaro	Draw	Palermo
Our model	25%	23%	52%
Market	24%	26%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 3.41 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Palermo (rating 1432 vs 1603).
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Catanzaro	Palermo
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2	2.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.5	1.7 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	2.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.90

X3.60

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.98

2 (-0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 3.91
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.97 ★
2	1.83 → 1.83	Pinn 1.85

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +5’	3.90	3.60	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +5’	3.91	3.97	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Catanzaro 3–0–3 Palermo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/05/26 Italy Serie B	Palermo	2-0 HT 1-0	Catanzaro
17/05/26 Italy Serie B	Catanzaro	3-0 HT 3-0	Palermo
01/05/26 Italy Serie B	Palermo	3-2 HT 1-2	Catanzaro
25/10/25 Italy Serie B	Catanzaro	1-0 HT 1-0	Palermo
27/04/25 Italy Serie B	Catanzaro	1-3 HT 0-2	Palermo
15/12/24 Italy Serie B	Palermo	1-2 HT 1-1	Catanzaro

Standings · Italy Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palermo	11	8	3	0	25	13	27
2	Modena	11	7	2	2	20	10	23
3	Ascoli	11	5	5	1	17	7	20
4	Mantova	11	5	4	2	15	11	19
5	Verona	11	4	4	3	19	13	16
6	Avellino	11	4	4	3	16	11	16
7	Benevento	11	4	4	3	15	11	16
8	Pisa	11	4	4	3	20	17	16
9	Cremonese	11	4	3	4	14	12	15
10	Sudtirol	11	3	6	2	13	12	15
11	Padova	11	4	3	4	12	13	15
12	Cesena	11	3	6	2	12	14	15
13	Juve Stabia	11	4	4	3	12	11	12
14	Sampdoria	11	3	2	6	11	18	11
15	Arezzo	11	3	2	6	9	20	11
16	Virtus Entella	11	2	4	5	11	14	10
17	Carrarese	11	3	1	7	9	14	10
18	Empoli	11	2	3	6	12	19	9
19	Vicenza	11	2	3	6	14	24	9
20	Catanzaro	11	1	3	7	11	23	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Catanzaro	Palermo
Padova	1-1 D	2-1 W
Ascoli	1-6 L	1-1 D
Mantova	1-3 L	2-0 W
Sampdoria	1-2 L	3-1 W
Carrarese	1-0 W	2-1 W
Pisa	1-2 L	3-3 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Palermo (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Catanzaro

LLWLLDLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Cesena Italy Serie B	0-0	0-1	9	1	L
31/10	Padova Italy Serie B	1-0	1-1	11	4	D
27/10	Benevento Italy Serie B	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
24/10	Ascoli Italy Serie B	1-4	1-6	5	3	L
16/10	Verona Italy Serie B	1-1	2-2	0	3	D
11/10	Mantova Italy Serie B	0-2	1-3	5	4	L
19/09	Sampdoria Italy Serie B	1-0	1-2	5	8	L
12/09	Carrarese Italy Serie B	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
05/09	Sudtirol Italy Serie B	0-0	0-2	5	2	L
30/08	Pisa Italy Serie B	1-2	1-2	8	5	L

Palermo

WWDWWWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Ascoli Italy Serie B	0-1	1-1	2	1	D
01/11	Vicenza Italy Serie B	1-1	3-1	4	3	W
28/10	Pisa Italy Serie B	0-2	3-3	3	1	D
25/10	Carrarese Italy Serie B	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
17/10	Mantova Italy Serie B	0-0	2-0	3	1	W
10/10	Empoli Italy Serie B	0-0	4-2	5	2	W
19/09	Padova Italy Serie B	1-1	2-1	7	4	W
13/09	Avellino Italy Serie B	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
07/09	Sampdoria Italy Serie B	2-0	3-1	2	5	W
30/08	Arezzo Italy Serie B	1-0	3-2	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Catanzaro vs Palermo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Palermo win (51%). Probabilities: Catanzaro 24%, draw 25%, Palermo 51%.

How many goals are expected in Catanzaro vs Palermo?

The model expects 3.41 goals (Catanzaro 1.38 · Palermo 2.04), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Catanzaro vs Palermo?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.