Football · Italy Serie B · 21/11, 19:30

Prediction: Empoli vs Pisa

Team pages: Empoli · Pisa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Empoli1.18

Pisa1.84

1X2

23% 26% 52%

Empoli Draw Pisa

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Empoli 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLLDLLDD

Pisa 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWLDWWDDLD

Head-to-head

Empoli 3–2–1 Pisa (6 last)

Pisa1-1Empoli
Empoli2-3Pisa
Pisa1-1Empoli
Empoli3-1Pisa
Empoli2-1Pisa
Pisa2-3Empoli

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Empoli 1442 · Pisa 1504

	Empoli	Draw	Pisa
Our model	23%	25%	52%
Market	22%	26%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pisa (rating 1442 vs 1504).
H2H favours Empoli: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Empoli	Pisa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.9	2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.6	3 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.3	3.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

14.10

X3.50

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.95

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.77 ★
2	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 1.87

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:27 +5’	4.10	3.50	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +7’	4.01	3.77	1.87

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Empoli 3–2–1 Pisa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/08/26 Coppa Italia	Pisa	1-1 HT 1-0	Empoli
30/07/25 Europe Friendlies	Empoli	2-3 HT 1-2	Pisa
20/02/21 Italy Serie B	Pisa	1-1 HT 1-0	Empoli
23/10/20 Italy Serie B	Empoli	3-1 HT 1-1	Pisa
16/02/20 Italy Serie B	Empoli	2-1 HT 0-1	Pisa
24/09/19 Italy Serie B	Pisa	2-3 HT 1-1	Empoli

Standings · Italy Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palermo	11	8	3	0	25	13	27
2	Modena	11	7	2	2	20	10	23
3	Ascoli	11	5	5	1	17	7	20
4	Mantova	11	5	4	2	15	11	19
5	Verona	11	4	4	3	19	13	16
6	Avellino	11	4	4	3	16	11	16
7	Benevento	11	4	4	3	15	11	16
8	Pisa	11	4	4	3	20	17	16
9	Cremonese	11	4	3	4	14	12	15
10	Sudtirol	11	3	6	2	13	12	15
11	Padova	11	4	3	4	12	13	15
12	Cesena	11	3	6	2	12	14	15
13	Juve Stabia	11	4	4	3	12	11	12
14	Sampdoria	11	3	2	6	11	18	11
15	Arezzo	11	3	2	6	9	20	11
16	Virtus Entella	11	2	4	5	11	14	10
17	Carrarese	11	3	1	7	9	14	10
18	Empoli	11	2	3	6	12	19	9
19	Vicenza	11	2	3	6	14	24	9
20	Catanzaro	11	1	3	7	11	23	6

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Empoli	Pisa
Juve Stabia	2-2 D	3-0 W
Vicenza	0-2 L	3-0 W
Palermo	2-4 L	3-3 D
Mantova	1-3 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Pisa (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Empoli

LWLLLDLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Padova Italy Serie B	1-2	2-2	6	3	D
01/11	Juve Stabia Italy Serie B	2-1	2-2	5	4	D
27/10	Cesena Italy Serie B	0-1	1-2	5	8	L
23/10	Vicenza Italy Serie B	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
17/10	Ascoli Italy Serie B	1-1	1-1	7	2	D
10/10	Palermo Italy Serie B	0-0	2-4	1	2	L
20/09	Modena Italy Serie B	1-0	1-2	2	4	L
11/09	Arezzo Italy Serie B	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
05/09	Carrarese Italy Serie B	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
30/08	Mantova Italy Serie B	0-0	1-3	6	8	L

Pisa

WWLDWWDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Sudtirol Italy Serie B	1-1	2-2	8	5	D
01/11	Avellino Italy Serie B	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
28/10	Palermo Italy Serie B	2-0	3-3	5	1	D
25/10	Verona Italy Serie B	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
17/10	Cremonese Italy Serie B	1-1	3-1	7	7	W
10/10	Vicenza Italy Serie B	1-0	3-0	12	2	W
20/09	Mantova Italy Serie B	1-1	2-2	5	6	D
11/09	Virtus Entella Italy Serie B	0-3	1-4	7	4	L
06/09	Juve Stabia Italy Serie B	1-0	3-0	3	4	W
30/08	Catanzaro Italy Serie B	2-1	2-1	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Empoli vs Pisa?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Pisa win (52%). Probabilities: Empoli 23%, draw 26%, Pisa 52%.

How many goals are expected in Empoli vs Pisa?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Empoli 1.18 · Pisa 1.84), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Empoli vs Pisa?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.