Football · Italy Serie A Women · 14/11, 18:00

Prediction: Fiorentina (W) vs Lazio (W)

Team pages: Fiorentina (W) · Lazio (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.76Total

Fiorentina (W)1.81

Lazio (W)0.95

1X2

57% 25% 19%

Fiorentina (W) Draw Lazio (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Fiorentina (W) 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWLWDWLW

Lazio (W) 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWWLDLLDLD

Head-to-head

Fiorentina (W) 2–1–3 Lazio (W) (6 last)

Fiorentina (W)2-1Lazio (W)
Lazio (W)3-0Fiorentina (W)
Lazio (W)1-0Fiorentina (W)
Lazio (W)2-0Fiorentina (W)
Fiorentina (W)3-2Lazio (W)
Fiorentina (W)2-2Lazio (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fiorentina (W) 1526 · Lazio (W) 1480

	Fiorentina (W)	Draw	Lazio (W)
Our model	57%	25%	18%
Market	57%	24%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fiorentina (W) (rating 1526 vs 1480).
H2H favours Lazio (W): 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fiorentina (W)	Lazio (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.1	0.7 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.7	2.9 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.1	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.70

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.77

2 (+0.75)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:33 +36’	1.57	3.70	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fiorentina (W) 2–1–3 Lazio (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Italy Serie A Women	Fiorentina (W)	2-1 HT 1-0	Lazio (W)
24/01/26 Italy Serie A Women	Lazio (W)	3-0 HT 2-0	Fiorentina (W)
17/08/25 Women’s Friendly	Lazio (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Fiorentina (W)
25/01/25 Italy Serie A Women	Lazio (W)	2-0 HT 0-0	Fiorentina (W)
19/10/24 Italy Serie A Women	Fiorentina (W)	3-2 HT 1-1	Lazio (W)
26/02/22 Italy Serie A Women	Fiorentina (W)	2-2 HT 1-1	Lazio (W)

Standings · Italy Serie A Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Roma (W)	6	6	0	0	21	7	18
2	Inter Milan (W)	6	5	1	0	13	0	16
3	Como 1907 (W)	6	3	2	1	13	11	11
4	Fiorentina (W)	6	3	1	2	10	6	10
5	Juventus (W)	6	3	0	3	12	14	9
6	Como (W)	6	2	2	2	4	5	8
7	Ternana (W)	6	2	1	3	5	11	7
8	AC Milan (W)	6	2	0	4	8	13	6
9	Napoli (W)	6	1	2	3	7	8	5
10	Parma (W)	6	1	2	3	3	7	5
11	Lazio (W)	6	0	3	3	1	7	3
12	Sassuolo (W)	6	0	2	4	5	13	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fiorentina (W)	Lazio (W)
Ternana (W)	4-0 W	0-1 L
Parma (W)	2-1 W	0-0 D
Como (W)	1-1 D	0-0 D
Sassuolo (W)	2-0 W	0-3 L
Inter Milan (W)	0-2 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Fiorentina (W) (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fiorentina (W)

DWWWLWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Ternana (W) Italy Serie A Women	2-0	4-0	5	3	W
02/11	Juventus (W) Italy Serie A Women	0-1	1-2	3	0	L
25/10	Parma (W) Italy Serie A Women	1-1	2-1	4	2	W
17/10	Como (W) Italy Serie A Women	1-0	1-1	6	0	D
03/10	Sassuolo (W) Italy Serie A Women	2-0	2-0	7	2	W
27/09	Inter Milan (W) Italy Serie A Women	0-0	0-2	1	4	L
17/05	Lazio (W) Italy Serie A Women	1-0	2-1	1	3	W
09/05	Genoa (W) Italy Serie A Women	1-1	3-2	5	3	W
03/05	Como (W) Italy Serie A Women	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
26/04	Ternana (W) Italy Serie A Women	1-2	2-2	11	4	D

Lazio (W)

LWWLDLLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Napoli (W) Italy Serie A Women	0-0	0-0	11	1	D
01/11	Inter Milan (W) Italy Serie A Women	0-2	0-3	6	0	L
25/10	Como (W) Italy Serie A Women	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
17/10	Ternana (W) Italy Serie A Women	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
03/10	Roma (W) Italy Serie A Women	0-1	1-3	3	5	L
26/09	Parma (W) Italy Serie A Women	0-0	0-0	11	2	D
17/05	Fiorentina (W) Italy Serie A Women	0-1	1-2	7	3	L
10/05	Ternana (W) Italy Serie A Women	1-0	2-0	7	3	W
03/05	Parma (W) Italy Serie A Women	1-1	3-1	4	2	W
25/04	Sassuolo (W) Italy Serie A Women	0-2	0-3	10	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fiorentina (W) vs Lazio (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fiorentina (W) win (57%). Probabilities: Fiorentina (W) 57%, draw 25%, Lazio (W) 19%.

How many goals are expected in Fiorentina (W) vs Lazio (W)?

The model expects 2.76 goals (Fiorentina (W) 1.81 · Lazio (W) 0.95), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Fiorentina (W) vs Lazio (W)?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.