Football · Uzbekistan 1st Division · 24/07, 15:30
Prediction: FC Aral Nukus vs Shurtan
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.82Total
FC Aral Nukus1.87
Shurtan0.96
1X2
FC Aral Nukus
Draw
Shurtan
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
FC Aral Nukus
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Shurtan
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Aral Nukus
2–2–2
Shurtan
(6 last)
- Shurtan4-1FC Aral Nukus
- FC Aral Nukus2-1Shurtan
- Shurtan4-0FC Aral Nukus
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Aral Nukus 1530 · Shurtan 1510
| FC Aral Nukus | Draw | Shurtan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| Market | 59% | 22% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Aral Nukus | Shurtan | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1 | 1.3 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.2 | 0.4 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 33/44/22% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.3 | 1.4 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.2 | 2.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Aral Nukus 2–2–2 Shurtan
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06/25 Uzbekistan Cup | Shurtan | 4-1 HT 2-0 | FC Aral Nukus |
| 05/11/24 Uzbekistan 1st Division | FC Aral Nukus | 2-1 | Shurtan |
| 11/09/24 Uzbekistan 1st Division | Shurtan | 4-0 | FC Aral Nukus |
| 13/06/24 Uzbekistan 1st Division | FC Aral Nukus | 2-0 | Shurtan |
| 08/04/24 Uzbekistan 1st Division | Shurtan | 1-1 HT 0-1 | FC Aral Nukus |
| 10/10/23 Uzbekistan 1st Division | Shurtan | 1-1 HT 0-0 | FC Aral Nukus |
Standings · Uzbekistan 1st Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Orol Nukus | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 7 | 26 |
| 2 | Shurtan | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 8 | 23 |
| 3 | FC Lochin | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 7 | 21 |
| 4 | Metallurg Bekabad | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 23 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Kattaqorgon | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 18 |
| 6 | Gazalkent | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 12 | 15 |
| 7 | Fardu Ferghana | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 19 | 13 |
| 8 | FC Yaypan Fergana | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 13 |
| 9 | Olympic Mobiuz | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 13 | 12 |
| 10 | Respublika FA | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 12 |
| 11 | Jayxun | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 8 |
| 12 | BuxDu | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 7 |
| 13 | Pakhtakor Tashkent II | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 23 | 4 |
| 14 | PFC Terdu | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 20 | 4 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Aral Nukus | Shurtan |
|---|---|---|
| Fardu Ferghana | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Jayxun | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 1 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Aral Nukus
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/12 | FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL Play-Offs |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 03/11 | FK Olympic Tashkent Uzbekistan 1st Division |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 27/10 | Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 20/10 | Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division |
0-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 05/10 | Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division |
0-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 26/09 | Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan 1st Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 14/09 | FK Olympic Tashkent Uzbekistan 1st Division |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 26/08 | Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 19/08 | Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division |
0-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 12/08 | Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
Shurtan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/06 | Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 04/06 | Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan 1st Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 26/05 | Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan Cup |
0-1 | 0-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 15/05 | FK Andijan Uzbekistan Cup |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 05/05 | Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 29/04 | PFC Terdu Uzbekistan 1st Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 24/04 | FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 20/04 | FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 15/04 | Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Aral Nukus vs Shurtan?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Aral Nukus win (58%). Probabilities: FC Aral Nukus 58%, draw 23%, Shurtan 18%.
How many goals are expected in FC Aral Nukus vs Shurtan?
The model expects 2.82 goals (FC Aral Nukus 1.87 · Shurtan 0.96), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Aral Nukus vs Shurtan?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.