Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 26/07, 22:00
Prediction: Barcelona Guayaquil vs LDU Quito
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.13Total
Barcelona Guayaquil1.17
LDU Quito0.95
1X2
Barcelona Guayaquil
Draw
LDU Quito
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 64%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Barcelona Guayaquil
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
LDU Quito
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Barcelona Guayaquil
1–1–4
LDU Quito
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Barcelona Guayaquil 1508 · LDU Quito 1514
| Barcelona Guayaquil | Draw | LDU Quito | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 32% | 28% |
| Market | 41% | 30% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.13 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours LDU Quito: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Barcelona Guayaquil | LDU Quito | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.1 | 1.1 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.7 | 3 / 6.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.2 | 4.1 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Barcelona Guayaquil 1–1–4 LDU Quito
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | LDU Quito | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Barcelona Guayaquil |
| 23/11/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Barcelona Guayaquil | 2-2 HT 1-1 | LDU Quito |
| 18/10/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | LDU Quito | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Barcelona Guayaquil |
| 25/07/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Barcelona Guayaquil | 0-1 HT 0-1 | LDU Quito |
| 19/06/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | LDU Quito | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Barcelona Guayaquil |
| 01/09/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | LDU Quito | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Barcelona Guayaquil |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 21 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 52 | 20 | 52 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 33 | 19 | 35 |
| 3 | SD Aucas | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 19 | 35 |
| 4 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 23 | 16 | 34 |
| 5 | Macara | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 24 | 21 | 32 |
| 6 | LDU Quito | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 17 | 29 |
| 7 | Deportivo Cuenca | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 19 | 26 | 28 |
| 8 | Leones FC | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 20 | 27 |
| 9 | Emelec | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 23 | 27 |
| 10 | Guayaquil City | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 22 | 26 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 26 | 30 | 24 |
| 12 | Club Atletico Libertad | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 26 | 24 |
| 13 | Orense | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 28 | 23 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 21 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 19 | 24 | 23 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 20 | 23 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 21 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 8 | 26 | 14 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Barcelona Guayaquil | LDU Quito |
|---|---|---|
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Club Atletico Libertad | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Deportivo Cuenca | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Barcelona Guayaquil (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Barcelona Guayaquil
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 19/07 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 16/07 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 13/07 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 05/07 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 02/06 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 29/05 | Cruzeiro Copa Libertadores |
0-1 | 0-4 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 25/05 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 22/05 | Universidad Catolica Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
LDU Quito
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 18/07 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 16/07 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 12/07 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 09/07 | Independiente Juniors Ecuador Cup |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 05/07 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 02/07 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 27/05 | Always Ready Copa Libertadores |
1-2 | 3-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 21/05 | Lanus Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Barcelona Guayaquil vs LDU Quito?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Barcelona Guayaquil win (40%). Probabilities: Barcelona Guayaquil 40%, draw 31%, LDU Quito 29%.
How many goals are expected in Barcelona Guayaquil vs LDU Quito?
The model expects 2.13 goals (Barcelona Guayaquil 1.17 · LDU Quito 0.95), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Barcelona Guayaquil vs LDU Quito?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.