Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · 14/11, 18:45

Prediction: Hercules vs Villarreal B

Team pages: Hercules · Villarreal B

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.46Total

Hercules1.31

Villarreal B1.15

1X2

40% 29% 32%

Hercules Draw Villarreal B

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Hercules 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Villarreal B 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Hercules 3–3 Villarreal B (6 last)

Villarreal B1-0Hercules
Hercules2-1Villarreal B
Villarreal B2-3Hercules
Villarreal B2-1Hercules
Hercules0-2Villarreal B
Villarreal B0-1Hercules

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hercules 1509 · Villarreal B 1559

	Hercules	Draw	Villarreal B
Our model	39%	30%	31%
Market	40%	28%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Villarreal B (rating 1509 vs 1559).
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hercules	Villarreal B
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.1	2.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/70/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6	2.7 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.4	3.9 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.20

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:12 +4’	2.25	3.20	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hercules 3–0–3 Villarreal B

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Villarreal B	1-0 HT 1-0	Hercules
18/10/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Hercules	2-1 HT 1-1	Villarreal B
30/07/25 Europe Friendlies	Villarreal B	2-3 HT 1-1	Hercules
04/05/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Villarreal B	2-1 HT 1-0	Hercules
17/11/24 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Hercules	0-2 HT 0-0	Villarreal B
26/07/24 Europe Friendlies	Villarreal B	0-1 HT 0-0	Hercules

Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Zaragoza	11	7	3	1	21	12	24
2	Villarreal B	11	6	4	1	24	13	22
3	Real Murcia	11	6	2	3	13	9	20
4	Real Jaen	11	5	4	2	19	15	19
5	Alcorcon	11	4	6	1	22	13	18
6	UD Ibiza	11	5	3	3	18	14	18
7	Hercules	11	5	2	4	12	13	17
8	FC Cartagena	11	4	4	3	16	13	16
9	Real Madrid B	11	4	4	3	15	13	16
10	Huesca	11	3	6	2	13	13	15
11	Gimnastic	11	4	3	4	16	17	15
12	Antequera	11	3	5	3	17	15	14
13	Algeciras CF	11	4	2	5	16	17	14
14	UE Sant Andreu	11	3	4	4	14	14	13
15	Atletico Madrid B	11	2	5	4	20	19	11
16	CE Europa	11	3	1	7	9	20	10
17	Aguilas	11	1	6	4	10	16	9
18	Juventud Torremolinos CF	11	1	5	5	12	21	8
19	Rayo Majadahonda	11	2	1	8	8	15	7
20	Teruel	11	1	4	6	5	18	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hercules	Villarreal B
Algeciras CF	0-2 L	2-1 W
Real Jaen	0-0 D	3-3 D
Juventud Torremolinos CF	1-0 W	1-1 D
Atletico Madrid B	0-2 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Villarreal B (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hercules

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Real Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	2-2	5	4	D
01/11	Rayo Majadahonda Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	2-0	2	7	W
25/10	Gimnastic Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-4	2-4	9	4	L
17/10	Algeciras CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-2	3	11	L
12/10	UE Sant Andreu Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	1-0	10	8	W
03/10	Real Jaen Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
26/09	Aguilas Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
20/09	Juventud Torremolinos CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
12/09	CE Europa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	2-1	7	4	W
06/09	Atletico Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	0-2	9	6	L

Villarreal B

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Juventud Torremolinos CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	1-1	4	4	D
31/10	Real Zaragoza Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	2-2	1	5	D
25/10	FC Cartagena Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	4-1	11	2	W
17/10	Teruel Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	2-0	10	4	W
10/10	Real Jaen Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	3-3	–	–	D
04/10	UD Ibiza Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-1	9	5	L
25/09	Atletico Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	3-1	4	6	W
19/09	Antequera Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	2-1	2-2	2	4	D
13/09	Huesca Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	2-0	3-0	2	3	W
04/09	Algeciras CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	2-1	6	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hercules vs Villarreal B?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hercules win (40%). Probabilities: Hercules 40%, draw 29%, Villarreal B 32%.

How many goals are expected in Hercules vs Villarreal B?

The model expects 2.46 goals (Hercules 1.31 · Villarreal B 1.15), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Hercules vs Villarreal B?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.