Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · 14/11, 16:30

Prediction: Rayo Majadahonda vs Aguilas

Team pages: Rayo Majadahonda · Aguilas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.1Total

Rayo Majadahonda1.2

Aguilas0.9

1X2

42% 31% 27%

Rayo Majadahonda Draw Aguilas

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Rayo Majadahonda 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Aguilas 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rayo Majadahonda 1461 · Aguilas 1447

	Rayo Majadahonda	Draw	Aguilas
Our model	41%	32%	26%
Market	43%	30%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.1 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rayo Majadahonda	Aguilas
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.3	0.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.5	2.2 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.1	5.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.00

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:10 +3’	2.10	3.00	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Zaragoza	11	7	3	1	21	12	24
2	Villarreal B	11	6	4	1	24	13	22
3	Real Murcia	11	6	2	3	13	9	20
4	Real Jaen	11	5	4	2	19	15	19
5	Alcorcon	11	4	6	1	22	13	18
6	UD Ibiza	11	5	3	3	18	14	18
7	Hercules	11	5	2	4	12	13	17
8	FC Cartagena	11	4	4	3	16	13	16
9	Real Madrid B	11	4	4	3	15	13	16
10	Huesca	11	3	6	2	13	13	15
11	Gimnastic	11	4	3	4	16	17	15
12	Antequera	11	3	5	3	17	15	14
13	Algeciras CF	11	4	2	5	16	17	14
14	UE Sant Andreu	11	3	4	4	14	14	13
15	Atletico Madrid B	11	2	5	4	20	19	11
16	CE Europa	11	3	1	7	9	20	10
17	Aguilas	11	1	6	4	10	16	9
18	Juventud Torremolinos CF	11	1	5	5	12	21	8
19	Rayo Majadahonda	11	2	1	8	8	15	7
20	Teruel	11	1	4	6	5	18	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rayo Majadahonda	Aguilas
Hercules	0-2 L	0-1 L
UE Sant Andreu	2-1 W	0-2 L
Algeciras CF	0-1 L	1-1 D
Teruel	2-0 W	1-1 D
FC Cartagena	1-1 D	1-4 L
UD Ibiza	1-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	0 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Rayo Majadahonda (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rayo Majadahonda

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Antequera Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-3	1-3	–	–	L
01/11	Hercules Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-2	5	7	L
24/10	UE Sant Andreu Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
18/10	Real Jaen Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
11/10	Real Murcia Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	0-1	7	13	L
04/10	Algeciras CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-1	3	9	L
27/09	CE Europa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
19/09	Teruel Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	2-0	7	3	W
12/09	FC Cartagena Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	1-1	12	3	D
05/09	UD Ibiza Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-2	9	5	L

Aguilas

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Gimnastic Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
01/11	Juventud Torremolinos CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
24/10	Teruel Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
17/10	UD Ibiza Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-2	11	4	L
10/10	Huesca Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	2-2	3	2	D
03/10	FC Cartagena Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-4	1-4	5	3	L
26/09	Hercules Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
20/09	Algeciras CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	1-1	5	9	D
12/09	Real Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	1-0	7	8	W
05/09	UE Sant Andreu Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	0-2	2	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rayo Majadahonda vs Aguilas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Rayo Majadahonda win (42%). Probabilities: Rayo Majadahonda 42%, draw 31%, Aguilas 27%.

How many goals are expected in Rayo Majadahonda vs Aguilas?

The model expects 2.1 goals (Rayo Majadahonda 1.2 · Aguilas 0.9), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Rayo Majadahonda vs Aguilas?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.