Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · 13/11, 21:15

Prediction: Gimnastic vs Real Madrid B

Team pages: Gimnastic · Real Madrid B

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

Gimnastic1.5

Real Madrid B1.41

1X2

38% 27% 34%

Gimnastic Draw Real Madrid B

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Gimnastic 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Real Madrid B 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Gimnastic 1–1 Real Madrid B (2 last)

Gimnastic1-0Real Madrid B
Real Madrid B2-1Gimnastic

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gimnastic 1478 · Real Madrid B 1512

	Gimnastic	Draw	Real Madrid B
Our model	38%	27%	34%
Market	38%	28%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gimnastic	Real Madrid B
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.7	1.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.7	1.9 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.1	5.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.25

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:47 +16’	2.35	3.25	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Gimnastic 1–0–1 Real Madrid B

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/02/22 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Gimnastic	1-0 HT 1-0	Real Madrid B
19/09/21 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	Real Madrid B	2-1 HT 1-0	Gimnastic

Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Zaragoza	11	7	3	1	21	12	24
2	Villarreal B	11	6	4	1	24	13	22
3	Real Murcia	11	6	2	3	13	9	20
4	Real Jaen	11	5	4	2	19	15	19
5	Alcorcon	11	4	6	1	22	13	18
6	UD Ibiza	11	5	3	3	18	14	18
7	Hercules	11	5	2	4	12	13	17
8	FC Cartagena	11	4	4	3	16	13	16
9	Real Madrid B	11	4	4	3	15	13	16
10	Huesca	11	3	6	2	13	13	15
11	Gimnastic	11	4	3	4	16	17	15
12	Antequera	11	3	5	3	17	15	14
13	Algeciras CF	11	4	2	5	16	17	14
14	UE Sant Andreu	11	3	4	4	14	14	13
15	Atletico Madrid B	11	2	5	4	20	19	11
16	CE Europa	11	3	1	7	9	20	10
17	Aguilas	11	1	6	4	10	16	9
18	Juventud Torremolinos CF	11	1	5	5	12	21	8
19	Rayo Majadahonda	11	2	1	8	8	15	7
20	Teruel	11	1	4	6	5	18	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gimnastic	Real Madrid B
Aguilas	1-1 D	0-1 L
Hercules	4-2 W	2-2 D
Atletico Madrid B	2-1 W	3-2 W
Juventud Torremolinos CF	2-2 D	2-0 W
UE Sant Andreu	1-2 L	1-1 D
Alcorcon	0-3 L	1-2 L
Algeciras CF	4-2 W	0-2 L
FC Cartagena	0-0 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Real Madrid B (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gimnastic

DWLLLDWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Aguilas Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
02/11	Huesca Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
25/10	Hercules Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	4-1	4-2	3	4	W
18/10	Atletico Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
10/10	Juventud Torremolinos CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	2-2	8	8	D
04/10	Real Murcia Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
26/09	UE Sant Andreu Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	1-2	4	7	L
20/09	Alcorcon Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-3	0-3	2	5	L
11/09	Algeciras CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	3-1	4-2	3	5	W
05/09	FC Cartagena Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-0	0-0	1	5	D

Real Madrid B

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Hercules Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	2-2	4	4	D
31/10	FC Cartagena Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	2-0	2-0	1	8	W
25/10	Algeciras CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	0-2	7	5	L
18/10	Antequera Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	3-2	2	7	W
09/10	UD Ibiza Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	1-1	1	2	D
02/10	Atletico Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	3-2	5	7	W
27/09	Alcorcon Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-2	1-2	8	3	L
23/09	UE Sant Andreu Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
12/09	Aguilas Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	0-1	0-1	3	8	L
05/09	Juventud Torremolinos CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2	1-0	2-0	9	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gimnastic vs Real Madrid B?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gimnastic win (38%). Probabilities: Gimnastic 38%, draw 27%, Real Madrid B 34%.

How many goals are expected in Gimnastic vs Real Madrid B?

The model expects 2.9 goals (Gimnastic 1.5 · Real Madrid B 1.41), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Gimnastic vs Real Madrid B?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.