Football · Brazil Campeonato Mineiro Women · 03/10, 20:00

Prediction: Cruzeiro (W) vs America MG (W)

Team pages: Cruzeiro (W) · America MG (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.06Total

Cruzeiro (W)2.91

America MG (W)1.14

1X2

72% 17% 11%

Cruzeiro (W) Draw America MG (W)

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Cruzeiro (W) 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

WDWDWDWWDW

America MG (W) 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDLWLDWLWL

Head-to-head

Cruzeiro (W) 4–2–0 America MG (W) (6 last)

Cruzeiro (W)4-0America MG (W)
Cruzeiro (W)2-2America MG (W)
America MG (W)0-4Cruzeiro (W)
America MG (W)2-2Cruzeiro (W)
America MG (W)0-3Cruzeiro (W)
Cruzeiro (W)3-0America MG (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cruzeiro (W) 1570 · America MG (W) 1441

	Cruzeiro (W)	Draw	America MG (W)
Our model	73%	16%	11%
Market	71%	19%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 4.06 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +1.1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cruzeiro (W) (rating 1570 vs 1441).
H2H favours Cruzeiro (W): 4-2-0.
High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cruzeiro (W)	America MG (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	4.9 / 1	2.4 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	2.7 / 0.6	1.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	67/0/33%	44/33/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 8.1	1.4 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.25

X4.75

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)2.00

2 (+1.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 2.15 · xG: 5.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
19:20 +17’	1.25	4.75	9.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cruzeiro (W) 4–2–0 America MG (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Cruzeiro (W)	4-0 HT 2-0	America MG (W)
22/11/25 Brazil Campeonato Mineiro Women	Cruzeiro (W)	2-2 HT 1-2	America MG (W)
15/11/25 Brazil Campeonato Mineiro Women	America MG (W)	0-4 HT 0-3	Cruzeiro (W)
18/10/25 Brazil Campeonato Mineiro Women	America MG (W)	2-2 HT 1-0	Cruzeiro (W)
20/04/25 Brazil Serie A1 Women	America MG (W)	0-3 HT 0-1	Cruzeiro (W)
20/11/24 Brazil Campeonato Mineiro Women	Cruzeiro (W)	3-0 HT 2-0	America MG (W)

Standings · Brazil Campeonato Mineiro Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cruzeiro (W)	4	3	1	0	32	3	10
2	Atletico Mineiro (W)	4	3	1	0	17	1	10
3	America MG (W)	4	2	0	2	15	7	6
4	Itabirito (W)	3	1	2	0	6	5	5
5	EC Democrata MG (W)	4	1	0	3	5	15	3
6	Venda Nova FC MG (W)	3	0	1	2	2	16	1
7	Araguari (W)	4	0	1	3	3	33	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cruzeiro (W)	America MG (W)
Itabirito (W)	3-3 D	2-3 L
EC Democrata MG (W)	4-0 W	6-0 W
Venda Nova FC MG (W)	9-0 W	6-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Cruzeiro (W) (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cruzeiro (W)

WDWDWDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Araguari (W) Brazil Campeonato Mineiro Women	8-0	16-0	7	2	W
23/09	Itabirito (W) Brazil Campeonato Mineiro Women	2-1	3-3	5	5	D
20/09	EC Democrata MG (W) Brazil Campeonato Mineiro Women	–	4-0	–	–	W
02/09	Venda Nova FC MG (W) Brazil Campeonato Mineiro Women	5-0	9-0	13	0	W
22/11	America MG (W) Brazil Campeonato Mineiro Women	1-2	2-2	10	4	D
15/11	America MG (W) Brazil Campeonato Mineiro Women	3-0	4-0	7	2	W
08/11	Itabirito (W) Brazil Campeonato Mineiro Women	2-0	2-2	8	5	D
01/11	Itabirito (W) Brazil Campeonato Mineiro Women	0-1	2-1	6	4	W
18/10	America MG (W) Brazil Campeonato Mineiro Women	0-1	2-2	9	5	D
11/10	Itabirito (W) Brazil Campeonato Mineiro Women	3-0	5-0	8	2	W

America MG (W)

DDLWLDWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/09	Itabirito (W) Brazil Campeonato Mineiro Women	1-1	2-3	0	5	L
26/09	Venda Nova FC MG (W) Brazil Campeonato Mineiro Women	5-0	6-1	12	4	W
12/09	Atletico Mineiro (W) Brazil Campeonato Mineiro Women	1-1	1-3	3	3	L
05/09	EC Democrata MG (W) Brazil Campeonato Mineiro Women	–	6-0	–	–	W
22/11	Cruzeiro (W) Brazil Campeonato Mineiro Women	2-1	2-2	4	4	D
15/11	Cruzeiro (W) Brazil Campeonato Mineiro Women	0-3	0-4	2	2	L
08/11	Atletico Mineiro (W) Brazil Campeonato Mineiro Women	2-0	4-0	6	7	W
01/11	Atletico Mineiro (W) Brazil Campeonato Mineiro Women	0-3	0-4	6	3	L
18/10	Cruzeiro (W) Brazil Campeonato Mineiro Women	1-0	2-2	2	5	D
12/10	Atletico Mineiro (W) Brazil Campeonato Mineiro Women	0-0	1-1	3	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cruzeiro (W) vs America MG (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cruzeiro (W) win (72%). Probabilities: Cruzeiro (W) 72%, draw 17%, America MG (W) 11%.

How many goals are expected in Cruzeiro (W) vs America MG (W)?

The model expects 4.06 goals (Cruzeiro (W) 2.91 · America MG (W) 1.14), with a 59% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Cruzeiro (W) vs America MG (W)?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.