Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 04/10, 00:00

Prediction: Deportivo Recoleta vs Libertad Asuncion

Team pages: Deportivo Recoleta · Libertad Asuncion

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Deportivo Recoleta1.28

Libertad Asuncion1.69

1X2

28% 26% 46%

Deportivo Recoleta Draw Libertad Asuncion

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Recoleta 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LWWLLLLLLL

Libertad Asuncion 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWWDLWWD

Head-to-head

Deportivo Recoleta 1–3–2 Libertad Asuncion (6 last)

Libertad Asuncion4-1Deportivo Recoleta
Libertad Asuncion1-0Deportivo Recoleta
Deportivo Recoleta2-1Libertad Asuncion
Deportivo Recoleta2-2Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion1-1Deportivo Recoleta
Deportivo Recoleta1-1Libertad Asuncion

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Libertad Asuncion (rating 1436 vs 1552).
H2H favours Libertad Asuncion: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Recoleta	Libertad Asuncion
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.3	1.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.1	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.8	3.2 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.4	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.91

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:19

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	4.14 → 4.14	Pinn 4.14
X	3.83 → 3.83	Pinn 3.83
2	1.72 → 1.72	Pinn 1.72

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 8.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:28 +51’	4.14	3.83	1.72

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Recoleta 1–3–2 Libertad Asuncion

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/07/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Libertad Asuncion	4-1 HT 1-1	Deportivo Recoleta
31/03/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Libertad Asuncion	1-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Recoleta
02/02/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Deportivo Recoleta	2-1 HT 0-0	Libertad Asuncion
27/10/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Deportivo Recoleta	2-2 HT 1-1	Libertad Asuncion
10/08/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Libertad Asuncion	1-1 HT 0-0	Deportivo Recoleta
14/04/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Deportivo Recoleta	1-1 HT 1-0	Libertad Asuncion

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Recoleta	Libertad Asuncion
Sportivo Luqueno	0-1 L	2-1 W
Sportivo Trinidense	1-3 L	2-1 W
Guarani Asuncion	0-2 L	1-2 L
Cerro Porteno	1-3 L	1-1 D
Sportivo Ameliano	1-3 L	1-1 D
2 de Mayo	1-2 L	2-0 W
Rubio Nu	3-1 W	4-2 W
Nacional Asuncion	3-2 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 6 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Libertad Asuncion (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Recoleta

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	10	4	L
12/09	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-3	1	7	L
07/09	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-2	3	0	L
03/09	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-3	1-3	6	2	L
29/08	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-2	1-2	4	5	L
22/08	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-3	3	5	L
14/08	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-2	1-2	8	1	L
07/08	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	3-1	5	5	W
03/08	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	3-2	0	3	W
30/07	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-4	8	4	L

Libertad Asuncion

WLWWWDLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-1	7	7	D
11/09	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
06/09	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	2-1	4-2	9	3	W
02/09	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-3	7	3	L
30/08	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-1	9	2	D
24/08	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
16/08	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
10/08	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
02/08	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-2	5	5	L
30/07	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	4-1	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Recoleta vs Libertad Asuncion?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Libertad Asuncion win (46%). Probabilities: Deportivo Recoleta 28%, draw 26%, Libertad Asuncion 46%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Recoleta vs Libertad Asuncion?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Deportivo Recoleta 1.28 · Libertad Asuncion 1.69), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Recoleta vs Libertad Asuncion?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.