Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 18/11, 22:00

Prediction: Rubio Nu vs Libertad Asuncion

Team pages: Rubio Nu · Libertad Asuncion

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

Rubio Nu0.98

Libertad Asuncion1.67

1X2

21% 26% 53%

Rubio Nu Draw Libertad Asuncion

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Rubio Nu 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLDWDLLWLD

Libertad Asuncion 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDLWDLWLLW

Head-to-head

Rubio Nu 2–2–2 Libertad Asuncion (6 last)

Libertad Asuncion4-2Rubio Nu
Rubio Nu3-0Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion0-1Rubio Nu
Rubio Nu2-4Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion0-0Rubio Nu
Libertad Asuncion1-1Rubio Nu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rubio Nu 1460 · Libertad Asuncion 1504

	Rubio Nu	Draw	Libertad Asuncion
Our model	21%	27%	52%
Market	21%	26%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Libertad Asuncion (rating 1460 vs 1504).
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rubio Nu	Libertad Asuncion
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.7	1.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.6	1.7 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.4	5.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

14.20

X3.50

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.80

2 (-0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
23:18 +53’	4.20	3.50	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rubio Nu 2–2–2 Libertad Asuncion

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/09/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Libertad Asuncion	4-2 HT 2-1	Rubio Nu
21/04/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Rubio Nu	3-0 HT 3-0	Libertad Asuncion
20/02/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Libertad Asuncion	0-1 HT 0-0	Rubio Nu
09/11/17 Paraguay Division Profesional	Rubio Nu	2-4 HT 1-1	Libertad Asuncion
22/07/17 Paraguay Division Profesional	Libertad Asuncion	0-0 HT 0-0	Rubio Nu
08/05/17 Paraguay Division Profesional	Libertad Asuncion	1-1 HT 1-1	Rubio Nu

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rubio Nu	Libertad Asuncion
Sportivo San Lorenzo	2-2 D	1-2 L
Sportivo Luqueno	0-5 L	1-0 W
Sportivo Trinidense	4-2 W	0-1 L
Guarani Asuncion	0-2 L	2-2 D
Deportivo Recoleta	0-1 L	2-1 W
Olimpia Asuncion	0-0 D	0-1 L
Sportivo Ameliano	2-1 W	1-1 D
2 de Mayo	2-2 D	2-0 W
Cerro Porteno	0-1 L	0-1 L
Nacional Asuncion	0-1 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 5 L	4 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Libertad Asuncion (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rubio Nu

LLDWDLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/11	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-2	2-2	6	5	D
05/11	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-2	0-5	5	6	L
30/10	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	3-0	4-2	6	4	W
23/10	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-2	3	2	L
17/10	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
11/10	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
06/10	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
26/09	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-2	3	3	D
19/09	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
13/09	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	3	5	L

Libertad Asuncion

WDLWDLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	3-0	3	5	W
04/11	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-1	5	7	L
31/10	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-2	3	2	L
24/10	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
19/10	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-1	1	6	L
12/10	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-2	4	5	D
05/10	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
29/09	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-1	3	9	L
19/09	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-1	7	7	D
11/09	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-0	3	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rubio Nu vs Libertad Asuncion?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Libertad Asuncion win (53%). Probabilities: Rubio Nu 21%, draw 26%, Libertad Asuncion 53%.

How many goals are expected in Rubio Nu vs Libertad Asuncion?

The model expects 2.64 goals (Rubio Nu 0.98 · Libertad Asuncion 1.67), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Rubio Nu vs Libertad Asuncion?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.