Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 18/11, 22:00

Prediction: 2 de Mayo vs Sportivo San Lorenzo

Team pages: 2 de Mayo · Sportivo San Lorenzo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.39Total

2 de Mayo1.52

Sportivo San Lorenzo0.87

1X2

52% 27% 21%

2 de Mayo Draw Sportivo San Lorenzo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

2 de Mayo 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Sportivo San Lorenzo 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

2 de Mayo 3–1–2 Sportivo San Lorenzo (6 last)

Sportivo San Lorenzo1-22 de Mayo
2 de Mayo0-1Sportivo San Lorenzo
Sportivo San Lorenzo1-12 de Mayo
Sportivo San Lorenzo0-12 de Mayo
2 de Mayo2-1Sportivo San Lorenzo
Sportivo San Lorenzo1-02 de Mayo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · 2 de Mayo 1451 · Sportivo San Lorenzo 1493

	2 de Mayo	Draw	Sportivo San Lorenzo
Our model	51%	28%	20%
Market	52%	26%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sportivo San Lorenzo (rating 1451 vs 1493).
H2H favours 2 de Mayo: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	2 de Mayo	Sportivo San Lorenzo
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.5	1.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.9	3.1 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	4.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.40

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.02

2 (+0.75)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
23:12 +59’	1.73	3.40	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · 2 de Mayo 3–1–2 Sportivo San Lorenzo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/09/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo San Lorenzo	1-2 HT 1-1	2 de Mayo
22/05/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	2 de Mayo	0-1 HT 0-1	Sportivo San Lorenzo
17/03/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo San Lorenzo	1-1 HT 0-1	2 de Mayo
08/09/23 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0-1 HT 0-1	2 de Mayo
05/06/23 Paraguay Division Intermedia	2 de Mayo	2-1 HT 2-0	Sportivo San Lorenzo
12/07/22 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Sportivo San Lorenzo	1-0 HT 0-0	2 de Mayo

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	2 de Mayo	Sportivo San Lorenzo
Sportivo Luqueno	0-3 L	2-3 L
Sportivo Trinidense	0-0 D	1-1 D
Guarani Asuncion	0-1 L	1-1 D
Deportivo Recoleta	1-1 D	0-0 D
Olimpia Asuncion	0-3 L	0-3 L
Sportivo Ameliano	1-0 W	0-1 L
Cerro Porteno	2-0 W	1-3 L
Rubio Nu	2-2 D	2-2 D
Nacional Asuncion	0-3 L	2-0 W
Libertad Asuncion	0-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 5 L	2 W 4 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Sportivo San Lorenzo (4 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

2 de Mayo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/11	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-3	3	4	L
03/11	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	5	0	D
30/10	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
25/10	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
18/10	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-3	4	5	L
12/10	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
06/10	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
26/09	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-2	2	3	D
18/09	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-2	0-3	11	7	L
11/09	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-2	3	6	L

Sportivo San Lorenzo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/11	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	2-1	2-2	4	5	D
03/11	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-0	4	7	W
31/10	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-1	7	2	W
25/10	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-2	1-3	5	6	L
19/10	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	2-1	2-3	2	5	L
10/10	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
03/10	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
28/09	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	9	1	D
20/09	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-2	0-3	6	4	L
11/09	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in 2 de Mayo vs Sportivo San Lorenzo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a 2 de Mayo win (52%). Probabilities: 2 de Mayo 52%, draw 27%, Sportivo San Lorenzo 21%.

How many goals are expected in 2 de Mayo vs Sportivo San Lorenzo?

The model expects 2.39 goals (2 de Mayo 1.52 · Sportivo San Lorenzo 0.87), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in 2 de Mayo vs Sportivo San Lorenzo?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.