Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 18/11, 22:00

Prediction: Deportivo Recoleta vs Guarani Asuncion

Team pages: Deportivo Recoleta · Guarani Asuncion

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.4Total

Deportivo Recoleta0.95

Guarani Asuncion1.46

1X2

24% 28% 48%

Deportivo Recoleta Draw Guarani Asuncion

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Recoleta 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLDLLWDWLD

Guarani Asuncion 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWWDDLWWWL

Head-to-head

Deportivo Recoleta 1–5 Guarani Asuncion (6 last)

Guarani Asuncion2-0Deportivo Recoleta
Deportivo Recoleta2-1Guarani Asuncion
Guarani Asuncion3-1Deportivo Recoleta
Guarani Asuncion2-1Deportivo Recoleta
Deportivo Recoleta2-3Guarani Asuncion
Deportivo Recoleta0-3Guarani Asuncion

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Recoleta 1490 · Guarani Asuncion 1542

	Deportivo Recoleta	Draw	Guarani Asuncion
Our model	23%	29%	48%
Market	24%	27%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guarani Asuncion (rating 1490 vs 1542).
H2H favours Guarani Asuncion: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Recoleta	Guarani Asuncion
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.3	1.1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/80/10%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5	3 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.6	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.70

X3.40

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
22:56 +74’	3.70	3.40	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Recoleta 1–0–5 Guarani Asuncion

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/09/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Guarani Asuncion	2-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo Recoleta
23/05/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Deportivo Recoleta	2-1 HT 2-1	Guarani Asuncion
19/03/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Guarani Asuncion	3-1 HT 0-1	Deportivo Recoleta
19/10/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Guarani Asuncion	2-1 HT 1-1	Deportivo Recoleta
04/08/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Deportivo Recoleta	2-3 HT 1-2	Guarani Asuncion
03/05/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Deportivo Recoleta	0-3 HT 0-1	Guarani Asuncion

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Recoleta	Guarani Asuncion
Cerro Porteno	1-1 D	1-1 D
Olimpia Asuncion	1-4 L	1-3 L
Sportivo Ameliano	3-0 W	1-0 W
2 de Mayo	1-1 D	1-0 W
Rubio Nu	1-0 W	2-0 W
Nacional Asuncion	0-1 L	0-2 L
Libertad Asuncion	1-2 L	2-2 D
Sportivo San Lorenzo	0-0 D	1-1 D
Sportivo Luqueno	0-1 L	1-0 W
Sportivo Trinidense	1-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 5 L	5 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Guarani Asuncion (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Recoleta

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-1	0	2	D
05/11	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-4	1-4	7	1	L
31/10	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	2-0	3-0	5	2	W
25/10	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
17/10	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
13/10	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	7	6	L
05/10	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-2	11	4	L
28/09	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
20/09	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	10	4	L
12/09	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-3	1	7	L

Guarani Asuncion

DWWDDLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-2	1-3	4	4	L
04/11	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
30/10	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
23/10	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
17/10	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-2	10	3	L
12/10	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-2	5	5	D
03/10	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
25/09	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
18/09	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
12/09	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-1	6	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Recoleta vs Guarani Asuncion?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Guarani Asuncion win (48%). Probabilities: Deportivo Recoleta 24%, draw 28%, Guarani Asuncion 48%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Recoleta vs Guarani Asuncion?

The model expects 2.4 goals (Deportivo Recoleta 0.95 · Guarani Asuncion 1.46), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Recoleta vs Guarani Asuncion?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.