Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 18/11, 22:00

Prediction: Nacional Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno

Team pages: Nacional Asuncion · Cerro Porteno

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.06Total

Nacional Asuncion1.07

Cerro Porteno0.99

1X2

37% 31% 32%

Nacional Asuncion Draw Cerro Porteno

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Nacional Asuncion 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWDDWWLWLL

Cerro Porteno 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWLLWDWLWD

Head-to-head

Nacional Asuncion 1–2–3 Cerro Porteno (6 last)

Cerro Porteno1-0Nacional Asuncion
Nacional Asuncion0-0Cerro Porteno
Cerro Porteno0-2Nacional Asuncion
Nacional Asuncion1-2Cerro Porteno
Cerro Porteno0-0Nacional Asuncion
Nacional Asuncion1-3Cerro Porteno

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nacional Asuncion 1516 · Cerro Porteno 1517

	Nacional Asuncion	Draw	Cerro Porteno
Our model	36%	33%	31%
Market	38%	29%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.06 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Cerro Porteno: 3-2-1.
High corners: 13 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nacional Asuncion	Cerro Porteno
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.8	1.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.2	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.6	3.9 / 7.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.4	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.10

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
00:01 +9’	2.40	3.10	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nacional Asuncion 1–2–3 Cerro Porteno

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/09/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Cerro Porteno	1-0 HT 0-0	Nacional Asuncion
12/04/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Nacional Asuncion	0-0 HT 0-0	Cerro Porteno
16/02/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Cerro Porteno	0-2 HT 0-1	Nacional Asuncion
28/10/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Nacional Asuncion	1-2 HT 1-2	Cerro Porteno
08/08/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Cerro Porteno	0-0 HT 0-0	Nacional Asuncion
16/04/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Nacional Asuncion	1-3 HT 1-2	Cerro Porteno

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nacional Asuncion	Cerro Porteno
Libertad Asuncion	0-3 L	1-0 W
Sportivo San Lorenzo	0-2 L	3-1 W
Sportivo Luqueno	3-0 W	3-0 W
Sportivo Trinidense	0-1 L	1-2 L
Guarani Asuncion	2-0 W	1-1 D
Deportivo Recoleta	1-0 W	1-1 D
Olimpia Asuncion	1-1 D	0-2 L
Sportivo Ameliano	1-1 D	2-2 D
2 de Mayo	3-0 W	0-2 L
Rubio Nu	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Nacional Asuncion (4 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nacional Asuncion

WWDDWWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-3	4	5	L
03/11	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-2	5	7	L
31/10	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	3-0	3-0	8	6	W
24/10	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
17/10	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	2-0	6	3	W
13/10	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
07/10	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
26/09	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-1	13	2	D
18/09	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	2-0	3-0	3	7	W
13/09	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	2	5	W

Cerro Porteno

DWLLWDWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-1	11	2	D
04/11	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
01/11	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-2	12	7	L
25/10	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	2-0	3-1	3	6	W
18/10	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-2	2	4	D
11/10	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	2-0	3-0	9	4	W
06/10	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-2	16	3	L
27/09	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-2	6	3	L
19/09	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-0	7	5	W
12/09	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-1	5	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nacional Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nacional Asuncion win (37%). Probabilities: Nacional Asuncion 37%, draw 31%, Cerro Porteno 32%.

How many goals are expected in Nacional Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno?

The model expects 2.06 goals (Nacional Asuncion 1.07 · Cerro Porteno 0.99), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Nacional Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.