Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 18/11, 22:00

Prediction: Sportivo Ameliano vs Sportivo Luqueno

Team pages: Sportivo Ameliano · Sportivo Luqueno

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

Sportivo Ameliano1.48

Sportivo Luqueno1.18

1X2

43% 28% 29%

Sportivo Ameliano Draw Sportivo Luqueno

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Sportivo Ameliano 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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Sportivo Luqueno 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Sportivo Ameliano 3–2–1 Sportivo Luqueno (6 last)

Sportivo Luqueno1-2Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Ameliano2-2Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno0-1Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Luqueno0-1Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Ameliano0-1Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno0-0Sportivo Ameliano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sportivo Ameliano 1456 · Sportivo Luqueno 1452

	Sportivo Ameliano	Draw	Sportivo Luqueno
Our model	43%	28%	29%
Market	43%	28%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sportivo Ameliano: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sportivo Ameliano	Sportivo Luqueno
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.7	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.7	0.5 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.9	2.9 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.4	4.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.25

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
23:10 +60’	2.10	3.25	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sportivo Ameliano 3–2–1 Sportivo Luqueno

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/09/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Luqueno	1-2 HT 0-1	Sportivo Ameliano
05/04/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Ameliano	2-2 HT 1-1	Sportivo Luqueno
07/02/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Luqueno	0-1 HT 0-0	Sportivo Ameliano
02/11/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Luqueno	0-1 HT 0-0	Sportivo Ameliano
16/08/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Ameliano	0-1 HT 0-1	Sportivo Luqueno
02/06/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Luqueno	0-0 HT 0-0	Sportivo Ameliano

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sportivo Ameliano	Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Trinidense	0-3 L	2-3 L
Guarani Asuncion	0-1 L	0-1 L
Deportivo Recoleta	0-3 L	1-0 W
Olimpia Asuncion	2-3 L	0-3 L
Cerro Porteno	2-2 D	0-3 L
2 de Mayo	0-1 L	3-0 W
Rubio Nu	1-2 L	5-0 W
Nacional Asuncion	1-1 D	0-3 L
Libertad Asuncion	1-1 D	0-1 L
Sportivo San Lorenzo	1-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 6 L	4 W 0 D 6 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sportivo Ameliano

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-3	1	3	L
04/11	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
31/10	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	0-2	0-3	3	2	L
25/10	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-3	4	6	L
18/10	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	2-2	1	4	D
12/10	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
06/10	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-2	6	7	L
26/09	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
19/09	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-1	1	7	D
11/09	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	5	5	W

Sportivo Luqueno

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/11	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	3-0	2	4	W
05/11	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	2-0	5-0	2	6	W
31/10	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-3	0-3	5	6	L
24/10	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
19/10	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-2	3-2	7	5	W
11/10	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-2	0-3	7	4	L
05/10	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	1-2	2-3	7	4	L
25/09	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
20/09	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
13/09	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-2	0-3	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sportivo Ameliano vs Sportivo Luqueno?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sportivo Ameliano win (43%). Probabilities: Sportivo Ameliano 43%, draw 28%, Sportivo Luqueno 29%.

How many goals are expected in Sportivo Ameliano vs Sportivo Luqueno?

The model expects 2.66 goals (Sportivo Ameliano 1.48 · Sportivo Luqueno 1.18), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sportivo Ameliano vs Sportivo Luqueno?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.