Football · England Southern Premier League South · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Gosport Borough vs Chertsey Town

Team pages: Gosport Borough · Chertsey Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.34Total

Gosport Borough1.51

Chertsey Town1.84

1X2

31% 24% 45%

Gosport Borough Draw Chertsey Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Gosport Borough 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDWWLWDDLW

Chertsey Town 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLLWDLDD

Head-to-head

Gosport Borough 2–1–1 Chertsey Town (4 last)

Gosport Borough2-2Chertsey Town
Chertsey Town1-3Gosport Borough
Gosport Borough0-2Chertsey Town
Chertsey Town0-2Gosport Borough

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gosport Borough 1518 · Chertsey Town 1542

	Gosport Borough	Draw	Chertsey Town
Our model	31%	25%	45%
Market	31%	24%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 3.34 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Gosport Borough: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gosport Borough	Chertsey Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.3	2.2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/100/0%	0/33/67%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.7	2.7 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1 / 0	6.7 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.75

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
11:15 +4’	2.88	3.75	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gosport Borough 2–1–1 Chertsey Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/02/26 England Southern Premier League South	Gosport Borough	2-2	Chertsey Town
20/09/25 England Southern Premier League South	Chertsey Town	1-3	Gosport Borough
01/03/25 England Southern Premier League South	Gosport Borough	0-2 HT 0-1	Chertsey Town
23/11/24 England Southern Premier League South	Chertsey Town	0-2	Gosport Borough

Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Poole Town	11	8	0	3	18	12	24
2	Plymouth Parkway	11	7	2	2	26	12	23
3	Uxbridge	10	7	2	1	20	8	23
4	Hanworth Villa	11	7	1	3	22	12	22
5	Bath City	11	6	2	3	16	10	20
6	Frome Town	12	5	4	3	20	14	19
7	Chichester City	11	6	1	4	20	19	19
8	Chertsey Town	11	4	4	3	23	18	16
9	Berkhamsted	11	5	1	5	14	14	16
10	Wimborne Town	10	4	3	3	17	9	15
11	Gosport Borough	11	4	3	4	15	14	15
12	Taunton Town	10	4	1	5	24	24	13
13	Evesham United	11	4	1	6	14	20	13
14	Basingstoke	11	3	3	5	19	21	12
15	Yate Town	11	3	3	5	15	24	12
16	Hanwell Town	10	2	5	3	10	12	11
17	Sholing	10	3	2	5	12	16	11
18	Bracknell Town	11	3	2	6	12	23	11
19	Gloucester	10	2	4	4	15	18	10
20	Havant and W	11	2	2	7	16	23	8
21	Chippenham Town	10	2	2	6	9	20	8
22	Malvern Town	11	2	2	7	17	31	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gosport Borough	Chertsey Town
Poole Town	1-3 L	1-3 L
Sholing	0-1 L	4-2 W
Malvern Town	4-2 W	5-0 W
Frome Town	2-1 W	1-2 L
Hanworth Villa	0-1 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gosport Borough

LDWWLWDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Bath City England Southern Premier League South	–	2-1	–	–	W
07/10	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	1-1	1-3	3	1	L
30/09	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	0-0	1-1	1	1	D
19/09	Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
12/09	Taunton Town England Southern Premier League South	–	3-1	–	–	W
31/08	Sholing England Southern Premier League South	–	0-1	–	–	L
29/08	Malvern Town England Southern Premier League South	1-1	4-2	7	1	W
22/08	Frome Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-1	–	–	W
15/08	Uxbridge England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
12/08	Hanworth Villa England Southern Premier League South	–	0-1	–	–	L

Chertsey Town

WDWLLWDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
10/10	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-2	–	–	D
29/09	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-3	–	–	L
22/09	Chichester City England Southern Premier League South	0-1	2-2	7	3	D
12/09	Malvern Town England Southern Premier League South	–	5-0	–	–	W
31/08	Hanworth Villa England Southern Premier League South	–	1-4	–	–	L
29/08	Frome Town England Southern Premier League South	0-1	1-2	9	13	L
22/08	Sholing England Southern Premier League South	–	4-2	–	–	W
15/08	Yate Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/08	Berkhamsted England Southern Premier League South	–	4-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gosport Borough vs Chertsey Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Chertsey Town win (45%). Probabilities: Gosport Borough 31%, draw 24%, Chertsey Town 45%.

How many goals are expected in Gosport Borough vs Chertsey Town?

The model expects 3.34 goals (Gosport Borough 1.51 · Chertsey Town 1.84), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Gosport Borough vs Chertsey Town?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.