Football · England Southern Premier League South · 17/10, 16:00
Prediction: Berkhamsted vs Basingstoke
Team pages: Berkhamsted · Basingstoke
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.84Total
Berkhamsted1.7
Basingstoke1.14
1X2
Berkhamsted
Draw
Basingstoke
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Berkhamsted
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Basingstoke
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Berkhamsted
1–1
Basingstoke
(2 last)
- Berkhamsted1-0Basingstoke
- Basingstoke2-1Berkhamsted
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Berkhamsted 1553 · Basingstoke 1468
| Berkhamsted | Draw | Basingstoke | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 26% | 24% |
| Market | 50% | 25% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Berkhamsted (rating 1553 vs 1468).
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Berkhamsted | Basingstoke | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.4 | 1.7 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0 / 0.7 | 0 / 1.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/67/33% | 0/0/100% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.7 / 3 | 3 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0 | 3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Berkhamsted 1–0–1 Basingstoke
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/01/26 England Southern Premier League South | Berkhamsted | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Basingstoke |
| 08/11/25 England Southern Premier League South | Basingstoke | 2-1 | Berkhamsted |
Standings · England Southern Premier League South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Poole Town | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 12 | 24 |
| 2 | Plymouth Parkway | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 12 | 23 |
| 3 | Uxbridge | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 8 | 23 |
| 4 | Hanworth Villa | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 12 | 22 |
| 5 | Bath City | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 10 | 20 |
| 6 | Frome Town | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 14 | 19 |
| 7 | Chichester City | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 19 | 19 |
| 8 | Chertsey Town | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 18 | 16 |
| 9 | Berkhamsted | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 14 | 16 |
| 10 | Wimborne Town | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 9 | 15 |
| 11 | Gosport Borough | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 15 |
| 12 | Taunton Town | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 24 | 13 |
| 13 | Evesham United | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 13 |
| 14 | Basingstoke | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 21 | 12 |
| 15 | Yate Town | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 24 | 12 |
| 16 | Hanwell Town | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 11 |
| 17 | Sholing | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 16 | 11 |
| 18 | Bracknell Town | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 23 | 11 |
| 19 | Gloucester | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 18 | 10 |
| 20 | Havant and W | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 23 | 8 |
| 21 | Chippenham Town | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 20 | 8 |
| 22 | Malvern Town | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 31 | 8 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Berkhamsted | Basingstoke |
|---|---|---|
| Uxbridge | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Hanwell Town | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Poole Town | 2-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Taunton Town | 1-2 L | 3-4 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Berkhamsted (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Berkhamsted
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Yate Town England Southern Premier League South |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 29/09 | Sholing England Southern Premier League South |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 22/09 | Hanworth Villa England Southern Premier League South |
0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 15/09 | Uxbridge England Southern Premier League South |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 12/09 | Evesham United England Southern Premier League South |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 31/08 | Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 29/08 | Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 22/08 | Poole Town England Southern Premier League South |
– | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 15/08 | Taunton Town England Southern Premier League South |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 11/08 | Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South |
– | 1-4 | – | – | L |
Basingstoke
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Havant and W England Southern Premier League South |
0-2 | 1-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 10/10 | Malvern Town England Southern Premier League South |
– | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 29/09 | Uxbridge England Southern Premier League South |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 19/09 | Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 12/09 | Gloucester England Southern Premier League South |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 31/08 | Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 29/08 | Taunton Town England Southern Premier League South |
– | 3-4 | – | – | L |
| 22/08 | Bath City England Southern Premier League South |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 15/08 | Poole Town England Southern Premier League South |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/08 | Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Berkhamsted vs Basingstoke?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Berkhamsted win (50%). Probabilities: Berkhamsted 50%, draw 26%, Basingstoke 25%.
How many goals are expected in Berkhamsted vs Basingstoke?
The model expects 2.84 goals (Berkhamsted 1.7 · Basingstoke 1.14), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Berkhamsted vs Basingstoke?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.