Football · England Southern Premier League South · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Gloucester vs Bath City

Team pages: Gloucester · Bath City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

Gloucester1.39

Bath City1.36

1X2

37% 27% 36%

Gloucester Draw Bath City

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Gloucester 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LLDWDLDLDW

Bath City 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWDLLWWWLW

Head-to-head

Gloucester 1–2–3 Bath City (6 last)

Bath City2-0Gloucester
Gloucester3-1Bath City
Bath City3-3Gloucester
Gloucester0-0Bath City
Bath City3-0Gloucester
Bath City5-1Gloucester

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gloucester 1545 · Bath City 1548

	Gloucester	Draw	Bath City
Our model	37%	28%	35%
Market	38%	26%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Bath City: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gloucester	Bath City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.8	1.4 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/0/50%	0/100/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5	3 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.5	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.50

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
11:15 +4’	2.38	3.50	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gloucester 1–2–3 Bath City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/23 Club Friendly List	Bath City	2-0 HT 1-0	Gloucester
23/07/22 Club Friendly List	Gloucester	3-1 HT 2-0	Bath City
24/07/21 Club Friendly List	Bath City	3-3 HT 2-0	Gloucester
26/01/19 England National League South	Gloucester	0-0 HT 0-0	Bath City
14/08/18 England National League South	Bath City	3-0 HT 2-0	Gloucester
02/04/18 England National League South	Bath City	5-1 HT 2-1	Gloucester

Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Poole Town	11	8	0	3	18	12	24
2	Plymouth Parkway	11	7	2	2	26	12	23
3	Uxbridge	10	7	2	1	20	8	23
4	Hanworth Villa	11	7	1	3	22	12	22
5	Bath City	11	6	2	3	16	10	20
6	Frome Town	12	5	4	3	20	14	19
7	Chichester City	11	6	1	4	20	19	19
8	Chertsey Town	11	4	4	3	23	18	16
9	Berkhamsted	11	5	1	5	14	14	16
10	Wimborne Town	10	4	3	3	17	9	15
11	Gosport Borough	11	4	3	4	15	14	15
12	Taunton Town	10	4	1	5	24	24	13
13	Evesham United	11	4	1	6	14	20	13
14	Basingstoke	11	3	3	5	19	21	12
15	Yate Town	11	3	3	5	15	24	12
16	Hanwell Town	10	2	5	3	10	12	11
17	Sholing	10	3	2	5	12	16	11
18	Bracknell Town	11	3	2	6	12	23	11
19	Gloucester	10	2	4	4	15	18	10
20	Havant and W	11	2	2	7	16	23	8
21	Chippenham Town	10	2	2	6	9	20	8
22	Malvern Town	11	2	2	7	17	31	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gloucester	Bath City
Hanworth Villa	3-1 W	1-0 W
Plymouth Parkway	1-1 D	1-1 D
Malvern Town	2-5 L	2-1 W
Basingstoke	1-1 D	1-1 D
Evesham United	1-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Bath City (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gloucester

LLDWDLDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Hanworth Villa England Southern Premier League South	–	3-1	–	–	W
29/09	Plymouth Parkway England Southern Premier League South	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
22/09	Malvern Town England Southern Premier League South	1-0	2-5	5	3	L
12/09	Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
31/08	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L
29/08	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	–	3-3	–	–	D
22/08	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W
15/08	Wimborne Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/08	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-3	–	–	L
08/08	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-1	–	–	L

Bath City

DWDLLWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
10/10	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L
29/09	Malvern Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-1	–	–	W
22/09	Taunton Town England Southern Premier League South	–	3-1	–	–	W
12/09	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-0	–	–	W
31/08	Frome Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-1	–	–	L
29/08	Uxbridge England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L
22/08	Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	Hanworth Villa England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W
11/08	Plymouth Parkway England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gloucester vs Bath City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gloucester win (37%). Probabilities: Gloucester 37%, draw 27%, Bath City 36%.

How many goals are expected in Gloucester vs Bath City?

The model expects 2.75 goals (Gloucester 1.39 · Bath City 1.36), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Gloucester vs Bath City?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.