Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 20/10, 20:45

Prediction: Welling vs Leatherhead

Team pages: Welling · Leatherhead

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.24Total

Welling1.88

Leatherhead1.35

1X2

49% 24% 27%

Welling Draw Leatherhead

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Welling 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWWWLW

Leatherhead 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWLWDDDL

Head-to-head

Welling 0–1 Leatherhead (1 last)

Leatherhead4-1Welling

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Welling 1557 · Leatherhead 1528

	Welling	Draw	Leatherhead
Our model	49%	24%	27%
Market	49%	24%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 3.24 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Welling	Leatherhead
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.8	1.8 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.3	0 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	75/25/0%	0/100/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	4 / 6.3	2 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	2 / 1

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.70

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.9%

Time*	1	X	2
12:23 +16’	1.80	3.70	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Welling 0–0–1 Leatherhead

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
11/08/26 England Isthmian Premier Division	Leatherhead	4-1	Welling

Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Enfield Town	12	9	1	2	33	16	28
2	Welling	12	9	0	3	24	12	27
3	Lewes	13	8	2	3	20	14	26
4	Dartford	12	8	0	4	19	14	24
5	Carshalton Ath	14	7	1	6	21	24	22
6	Ramsgate	12	6	1	5	27	17	19
7	Eastbourne Borough	10	6	1	3	19	11	19
8	Burgess Hill Town	11	4	5	2	20	15	17
9	St Albans	9	5	2	2	18	13	17
10	Dulwich	11	5	2	4	20	16	17
11	Wingate & Finchley	11	5	2	4	20	21	17
12	Chatham Town	10	5	0	5	19	14	15
13	Leatherhead	10	4	3	3	18	17	15
14	AFC Whyteleafe	13	4	3	6	20	22	15
15	Cheshunt	12	3	6	3	12	15	15
16	Aveley	12	4	2	6	19	19	14
17	Cray Wanderers	9	3	3	3	19	14	12
18	Maldon Tiptree FC	13	3	1	9	16	34	10
19	Brentwood Town	10	3	0	7	15	19	9
20	Three Bridges	12	2	3	7	23	34	9
21	Whitehawk	13	1	3	9	12	32	6
22	Stanway Rovers	11	1	1	9	9	30	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Welling	Leatherhead
Burgess Hill Town	4-2 W	2-2 D
Eastbourne Borough	0-1 L	1-0 W
Maldon Tiptree FC	1-0 W	1-4 L
AFC Whyteleafe	1-0 W	0-0 D
Cheshunt	2-0 W	1-2 L
Ramsgate	1-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Welling (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Welling

WWWLWWWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Burgess Hill Town England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	4-2	6	6	W
10/10	Eastbourne Borough England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-1	–	–	L
06/10	Maldon Tiptree FC England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/10	AFC Whyteleafe England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
15/09	Cheshunt England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
12/09	Wingate & Finchley England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	4-1	10	2	W
31/08	Cray Wanderers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-4	–	–	L
29/08	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
22/08	Dartford England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-0	–	–	W
15/08	Stanway Rovers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	4-0	–	–	W

Leatherhead

WDLWLWDDDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Cheshunt England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
26/09	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-2	–	–	D
22/09	Three Bridges England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-3	–	–	D
15/09	AFC Whyteleafe England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
12/09	Aveley England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-1	–	–	W
31/08	Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-3	–	–	L
29/08	Eastbourne Borough England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
22/08	Maldon Tiptree FC England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-4	–	–	L
15/08	Burgess Hill Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-2	–	–	D
11/08	Welling England Isthmian Premier Division	–	4-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Welling vs Leatherhead?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Welling win (49%). Probabilities: Welling 49%, draw 24%, Leatherhead 27%.

How many goals are expected in Welling vs Leatherhead?

The model expects 3.24 goals (Welling 1.88 · Leatherhead 1.35), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Welling vs Leatherhead?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.