Football · England Southern Premier League South · 22/09, 20:45
Prediction: Yate Town vs Evesham United
Team pages: Yate Town · Evesham United
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.86Total
Yate Town1.6
Evesham United1.26
1X2
Yate Town
Draw
Evesham United
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Yate Town
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Evesham United
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Yate Town
2–0
Evesham United
(2 last)
- Yate Town3-0Evesham United
- Evesham United0-1Yate Town
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yate Town 1560 · Evesham United 1467
| Yate Town | Draw | Evesham United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| Market | 45% | 26% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yate Town (rating 1560 vs 1467).
- H2H favours Yate Town: 2-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Yate Town | Evesham United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.3 | 1.5 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0 / 0 | 0 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/100/0% | 0/0/100% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.5 / 5 | 2 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.5 / 1 | 4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Yate Town 2–0–0 Evesham United
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/26 England Southern Premier League South | Yate Town | 3-0 | Evesham United |
| 27/12/25 England Southern Premier League South | Evesham United | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Yate Town |
Standings · England Southern Premier League South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uxbridge | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 7 | 17 |
| 2 | Plymouth Parkway | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | Chertsey Town | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 13 |
| 4 | Hanworth Villa | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 6 | 13 |
| 5 | Frome Town | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 13 |
| 6 | Berkhamsted | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 13 |
| 7 | Taunton Town | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 17 | 12 |
| 8 | Chichester City | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 12 | 12 |
| 9 | Poole Town | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 12 |
| 10 | Gosport Borough | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 11 |
| 11 | Bath City | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 11 |
| 12 | Yate Town | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 11 | 11 |
| 13 | Evesham United | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 10 |
| 14 | Bracknell Town | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 10 |
| 15 | Wimborne Town | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 9 |
| 16 | Basingstoke | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 14 | 9 |
| 17 | Sholing | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 7 |
| 18 | Chippenham Town | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 7 |
| 19 | Gloucester | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 6 |
| 20 | Hanwell Town | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 6 |
| 21 | Havant and W | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 4 |
| 22 | Malvern Town | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 2 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Yate Town | Evesham United |
|---|---|---|
| Hanworth Villa | 3-2 W | 1-4 L |
| Taunton Town | 1-4 L | 0-0 D |
| Gosport Borough | 1-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Gloucester | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Yate Town (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yate Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Hanworth Villa England Southern Premier League South |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 31/08 | Taunton Town England Southern Premier League South |
– | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 29/08 | Poole Town England Southern Premier League South |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 22/08 | Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 15/08 | Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 11/08 | Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 08/08 | Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Havant and W England Southern Premier League South |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 18/04 | Gloucester England Southern Premier League South |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 11/04 | Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
Evesham United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Berkhamsted England Southern Premier League South |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 31/08 | Gloucester England Southern Premier League South |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 29/08 | Plymouth Parkway England Southern Premier League South |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 22/08 | Hanworth Villa England Southern Premier League South |
– | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 15/08 | Chichester City England Southern Premier League South |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/08 | Frome Town England Southern Premier League South |
0-1 | 0-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 08/08 | Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South |
– | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Taunton Town England Southern Premier League South |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 18/04 | Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 11/04 | Walton & Hersham England Southern Premier League South |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yate Town vs Evesham United?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Yate Town win (44%). Probabilities: Yate Town 44%, draw 26%, Evesham United 29%.
How many goals are expected in Yate Town vs Evesham United?
The model expects 2.86 goals (Yate Town 1.6 · Evesham United 1.26), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Yate Town vs Evesham United?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.