Football · England Southern Premier League South · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Plymouth Parkway vs Yate Town

Team pages: Plymouth Parkway · Yate Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.18Total

Plymouth Parkway2.09

Yate Town1.09

1X2

60% 22% 18%

Plymouth Parkway Draw Yate Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Plymouth Parkway 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DLWWWWWDLW

Yate Town 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DDWLLWLDLL

Head-to-head

Plymouth Parkway 2–2 Yate Town (4 last)

Plymouth Parkway1-0Yate Town
Yate Town2-1Plymouth Parkway
Plymouth Parkway2-1Yate Town
Yate Town4-0Plymouth Parkway

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Plymouth Parkway 1580 · Yate Town 1461

	Plymouth Parkway	Draw	Yate Town
Our model	59%	23%	18%
Market	60%	21%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.18 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Plymouth Parkway (rating 1580 vs 1461).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Plymouth Parkway	Yate Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.2	1.4 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	– / –
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	//%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.5	– / –
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0	– / –

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.20

24.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.82

2 (+1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	4.80 → 4.80	Bet365 4.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
11:16 +3’	1.50	4.20	4.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Plymouth Parkway 2–0–2 Yate Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 England Southern Premier League South	Plymouth Parkway	1-0	Yate Town
27/09/25 England Southern Premier League South	Yate Town	2-1	Plymouth Parkway
25/02/23 England Southern Premier League South	Plymouth Parkway	2-1	Yate Town
11/10/22 England Southern Premier League South	Yate Town	4-0	Plymouth Parkway

Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Poole Town	11	8	0	3	18	12	24
2	Plymouth Parkway	11	7	2	2	26	12	23
3	Uxbridge	10	7	2	1	20	8	23
4	Hanworth Villa	11	7	1	3	22	12	22
5	Bath City	11	6	2	3	16	10	20
6	Frome Town	12	5	4	3	20	14	19
7	Chichester City	11	6	1	4	20	19	19
8	Chertsey Town	11	4	4	3	23	18	16
9	Berkhamsted	11	5	1	5	14	14	16
10	Wimborne Town	10	4	3	3	17	9	15
11	Gosport Borough	11	4	3	4	15	14	15
12	Taunton Town	10	4	1	5	24	24	13
13	Evesham United	11	4	1	6	14	20	13
14	Basingstoke	11	3	3	5	19	21	12
15	Yate Town	11	3	3	5	15	24	12
16	Hanwell Town	10	2	5	3	10	12	11
17	Sholing	10	3	2	5	12	16	11
18	Bracknell Town	11	3	2	6	12	23	11
19	Gloucester	10	2	4	4	15	18	10
20	Havant and W	11	2	2	7	16	23	8
21	Chippenham Town	10	2	2	6	9	20	8
22	Malvern Town	11	2	2	7	17	31	8

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Plymouth Parkway	Yate Town
Wimborne Town	2-1 W	0-4 L
Frome Town	2-0 W	3-3 D
Poole Town	2-0 W	1-2 L
Chippenham Town	2-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Plymouth Parkway (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Plymouth Parkway

DLWWWWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Wimborne Town England Southern Premier League South	1-1	2-1	6	2	W
10/10	Chichester City England Southern Premier League South	–	1-3	–	–	L
29/09	Gloucester England Southern Premier League South	1-0	1-1	1	3	D
22/09	Frome Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-0	–	–	W
12/09	Sholing England Southern Premier League South	–	3-1	–	–	W
31/08	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-0	–	–	W
29/08	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	–	3-1	–	–	W
22/08	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	–	2-1	–	–	W
15/08	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-3	–	–	L
11/08	Bath City England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D

Yate Town

DDWLLWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Malvern Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-3	–	–	L
10/10	Berkhamsted England Southern Premier League South	–	0-3	–	–	L
03/10	Frome Town England Southern Premier League South	–	3-3	–	–	D
29/09	Wimborne Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-4	–	–	L
12/09	Hanworth Villa England Southern Premier League South	–	3-2	–	–	W
31/08	Taunton Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-4	–	–	L
29/08	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L
22/08	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-1	–	–	W
15/08	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/08	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Plymouth Parkway vs Yate Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Plymouth Parkway win (60%). Probabilities: Plymouth Parkway 60%, draw 22%, Yate Town 18%.

How many goals are expected in Plymouth Parkway vs Yate Town?

The model expects 3.18 goals (Plymouth Parkway 2.09 · Yate Town 1.09), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Plymouth Parkway vs Yate Town?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.