Football · England Southern Premier League South · 14/11, 16:00

Prediction: Poole Town vs Taunton Town

Team pages: Poole Town · Taunton Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.34Total

Poole Town1.91

Taunton Town1.43

1X2

48% 24% 28%

Poole Town Draw Taunton Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Poole Town 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Taunton Town 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Poole Town 3–1–2 Taunton Town (6 last)

Poole Town2-1Taunton Town
Taunton Town1-4Poole Town
Taunton Town2-0Poole Town
Poole Town2-3Taunton Town
Poole Town1-0Taunton Town
Taunton Town1-1Poole Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Poole Town 1568 · Taunton Town 1504

	Poole Town	Draw	Taunton Town
Our model	48%	24%	28%
Market	48%	24%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.34 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Poole Town (rating 1568 vs 1504).
H2H favours Poole Town: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Poole Town	Taunton Town
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.8	2.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	1.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/100/0%	50/0/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	4 / 4.5	2.5 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0	4.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.70

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
11:28 +40’	1.90	3.70	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Poole Town 3–1–2 Taunton Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 England Southern Premier League South	Poole Town	2-1	Taunton Town
22/10/25 England Southern Premier League South	Taunton Town	1-4 HT 1-1	Poole Town
21/12/24 England Southern Premier League South	Taunton Town	2-0	Poole Town
14/09/24 England FA Cup Qualification	Poole Town	2-3	Taunton Town
13/08/24 England Southern Premier League South	Poole Town	1-0	Taunton Town
27/11/21 England Southern Premier League South	Taunton Town	1-1	Poole Town

Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Uxbridge	16	11	3	2	33	14	36
2	Poole Town	16	10	2	4	28	17	32
3	Hanworth Villa	16	9	4	3	32	19	31
4	Plymouth Parkway	15	9	2	4	32	19	29
5	Chertsey Town	16	8	5	3	35	25	29
6	Bath City	16	9	2	5	21	15	29
7	Chichester City	17	9	1	7	30	28	28
8	Gosport Borough	16	7	3	6	25	22	24
9	Wimborne Town	13	6	4	3	22	9	22
10	Taunton Town	14	7	1	6	35	26	22
11	Frome Town	15	5	5	5	24	21	20
12	Berkhamsted	14	5	3	6	18	20	18
13	Yate Town	16	4	6	6	20	28	18
14	Sholing	14	4	5	5	19	21	17
15	Hanwell Town	16	4	5	7	22	26	17
16	Basingstoke	16	4	4	8	25	32	16
17	Chippenham Town	16	4	4	8	18	30	16
18	Evesham United	17	5	1	11	21	37	16
19	Gloucester	14	3	6	5	21	24	15
20	Bracknell Town	17	4	3	10	19	37	15
21	Malvern Town	16	4	2	10	24	41	14
22	Havant and W	16	3	3	10	20	33	12

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Poole Town	Taunton Town
Hanwell Town	3-0 W	1-2 L
Bath City	0-1 L	3-0 W
Bracknell Town	1-0 W	4-0 W
Gosport Borough	3-1 W	1-3 L
Evesham United	3-1 W	4-1 W
Havant and W	1-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Poole Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Uxbridge England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
03/11	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	3-0	–	–	W
31/10	Bath City England Southern Premier League South	–	0-1	–	–	L
27/10	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-2	–	–	D
17/10	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	–	4-1	–	–	W
10/10	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W
07/10	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	1-1	3-1	4	1	W
03/10	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	–	3-1	–	–	W
29/09	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	–	3-1	–	–	W
12/09	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	0-0	1-0	5	4	W

Taunton Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/11	Bath City England Southern Premier League South	2-0	3-0	4	5	W
31/10	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	–	0-1	–	–	L
20/10	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	4-0	–	–	W
17/10	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	–	4-1	–	–	W
10/10	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L
30/09	Frome Town England Southern Premier League South	1-2	2-2	5	4	D
22/09	Bath City England Southern Premier League South	–	1-3	–	–	L
12/09	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	–	1-3	–	–	L
31/08	Yate Town England Southern Premier League South	–	4-1	–	–	W
29/08	Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South	–	4-3	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Poole Town vs Taunton Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Poole Town win (48%). Probabilities: Poole Town 48%, draw 24%, Taunton Town 28%.

How many goals are expected in Poole Town vs Taunton Town?

The model expects 3.34 goals (Poole Town 1.91 · Taunton Town 1.43), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Poole Town vs Taunton Town?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.