Football · England Northern Premier League · 14/11, 16:00

Prediction: Curzon Ashton vs Quorn

Team pages: Curzon Ashton · Quorn

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.49Total

Curzon Ashton2.17

Quorn1.31

1X2

56% 22% 22%

Curzon Ashton Draw Quorn

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Curzon Ashton 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLLWWWWW

Quorn 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWDWDDWL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Curzon Ashton 1574 · Quorn 1503

	Curzon Ashton	Draw	Quorn
Our model	56%	22%	22%
Market	56%	22%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.49 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Curzon Ashton (rating 1574 vs 1503).
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Curzon Ashton	Quorn
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.8	2.4 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/38/13%	38/25/38%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.3	3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.60

X4.20

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:55 +16’	1.60	4.20	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	18	11	5	2	41	19	38
2	Curzon Ashton	18	12	1	5	32	18	37
3	Cleethorpes Town	17	11	3	3	34	10	36
4	Guiseley	16	10	3	3	34	16	33
5	Warrington Rylands	17	9	3	5	31	24	30
6	Workington	18	9	3	6	31	27	30
7	Bury	16	9	2	5	32	18	29
8	Gainsborough	17	9	2	6	33	24	29
9	Warrington Town	17	8	5	4	31	24	29
10	Avro FC	17	9	2	6	39	33	29
11	Alfreton Town	18	7	2	9	23	25	23
12	Emley AFC	18	6	5	7	21	29	23
13	Quorn	17	5	6	6	33	35	21
14	Lancaster City	18	6	3	9	20	31	21
15	Whitby	17	6	1	10	23	44	19
16	Stockton Town	18	5	3	10	26	31	18
17	Hyde Utd	17	5	3	9	19	32	18
18	Ashton Utd	17	4	5	8	19	21	17
19	Leek Town	17	4	5	8	34	39	17
20	Ilkeston	18	4	1	13	13	38	13
21	FC United of Manchester	16	2	6	8	20	27	12
22	Bamber Bridge	18	2	5	11	18	42	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Curzon Ashton	Quorn
Ilkeston	1-0 W	2-0 W
Stockton Town	1-0 W	2-3 L
FC United of Manchester	1-0 W	1-1 D
Whitby	0-1 L	3-6 L
Hyde Utd	2-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Curzon Ashton (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Curzon Ashton

WWWLLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/11	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-0	10	0	W
07/11	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/11	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
31/10	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	2-0	2-1	9	3	W
27/10	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	1-0	3-0	4	2	W
17/10	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
13/10	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-5	3	3	L
10/10	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-0	6	3	W
06/10	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	3-0	3-1	2	2	W
12/09	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-0	3	0	W

Quorn

LWLWDWDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/11	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	1-2	2-3	6	4	L
06/11	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	4-0	8	3	W
27/10	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
13/10	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-2	0	8	D
10/10	Workington England Northern Premier League	1-0	3-0	7	6	W
06/10	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-2	7	6	D
03/10	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	2-0	4-2	7	1	W
12/09	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	–	1-4	–	–	L
31/08	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-0	5	1	W
29/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	3-6	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Curzon Ashton vs Quorn?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Curzon Ashton win (56%). Probabilities: Curzon Ashton 56%, draw 22%, Quorn 22%.

How many goals are expected in Curzon Ashton vs Quorn?

The model expects 3.49 goals (Curzon Ashton 2.17 · Quorn 1.31), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Curzon Ashton vs Quorn?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.