Football · England Northern Premier League · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Bury vs Cleethorpes Town

Team pages: Bury · Cleethorpes Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

Bury1.67

Cleethorpes Town1.42

1X2

42% 26% 32%

Bury Draw Cleethorpes Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Bury 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWLWLW

Cleethorpes Town 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWDDWW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bury 1568 · Cleethorpes Town 1574

	Bury	Draw	Cleethorpes Town
Our model	42%	26%	32%
Market	43%	26%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.09 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bury	Cleethorpes Town
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.1	2.2 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	2 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	38/38/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 7.8	2.4 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.2	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.50

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
11:13 +6’	2.10	3.50	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	14	9	4	1	31	12	31
2	Cleethorpes Town	13	9	3	1	30	7	30
3	Guiseley	12	8	1	3	25	11	25
4	Avro FC	12	8	1	3	34	23	25
5	Warrington Rylands	14	7	2	5	25	21	23
6	Gainsborough	12	7	1	4	25	16	22
7	Curzon Ashton	12	7	1	4	24	16	22
8	Warrington Town	12	6	4	2	23	18	22
9	Workington	14	6	3	5	24	24	21
10	Lancaster City	14	6	2	6	19	26	20
11	Bury	11	6	1	4	22	11	19
12	Alfreton Town	14	6	1	7	20	16	19
13	Whitby	13	5	1	7	19	33	16
14	Hyde Utd	14	4	3	7	15	25	15
15	Ashton Utd	12	3	5	4	14	13	14
16	Quorn	13	3	5	5	23	29	14
17	Stockton Town	14	3	3	8	17	25	12
18	Leek Town	12	2	5	5	24	25	11
19	Emley AFC	13	2	5	6	12	25	11
20	Bamber Bridge	13	2	4	7	16	32	10
21	FC United of Manchester	12	1	4	7	15	23	7
22	Ilkeston	14	2	1	11	8	34	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bury	Cleethorpes Town
Alfreton Town	3-2 W	2-1 W
Hyde Utd	1-2 L	1-0 W
Ilkeston	7-0 W	3-0 W
Gainsborough	1-0 W	3-0 W
Warrington Rylands	1-0 W	3-0 W
Curzon Ashton	3-2 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Cleethorpes Town (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bury

WWLWLWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	2-1	3-2	5	5	W
06/10	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	3-0	4-0	7	1	W
31/08	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-2	7	3	L
29/08	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	4-0	7-0	10	3	W
25/08	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-1	10	3	L
22/08	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W
18/08	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	–	2-3	–	–	L
15/08	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W
11/08	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	–	3-2	–	–	W

Cleethorpes Town

WWWLWWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	1-0	3-0	7	6	W
06/10	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
03/10	Workington England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
22/09	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-1	7	2	D
12/09	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
31/08	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	0-0	3-0	3	2	W
28/08	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-3	6	2	L
25/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	3-0	6-0	6	2	W
22/08	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	–	3-0	–	–	W
18/08	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bury vs Cleethorpes Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bury win (42%). Probabilities: Bury 42%, draw 26%, Cleethorpes Town 32%.

How many goals are expected in Bury vs Cleethorpes Town?

The model expects 3.09 goals (Bury 1.67 · Cleethorpes Town 1.42), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Bury vs Cleethorpes Town?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.