Football · England Northern Premier League · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: FC United of Manchester vs Quorn

Team pages: FC United of Manchester · Quorn

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.69Total

FC United of Manchester1.95

Quorn1.74

1X2

42% 24% 34%

FC United of Manchester Draw Quorn

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

FC United of Manchester 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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Quorn 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDDLWLWDWD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC United of Manchester 1485 · Quorn 1519

	FC United of Manchester	Draw	Quorn
Our model	43%	23%	34%
Market	42%	25%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.69 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC United of Manchester	Quorn
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.9	2.1 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	33/50/17%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4	2.5 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.60

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
11:16 +2’	2.15	3.60	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	14	9	4	1	31	12	31
2	Cleethorpes Town	13	9	3	1	30	7	30
3	Guiseley	12	8	1	3	25	11	25
4	Avro FC	12	8	1	3	34	23	25
5	Warrington Rylands	14	7	2	5	25	21	23
6	Gainsborough	12	7	1	4	25	16	22
7	Curzon Ashton	12	7	1	4	24	16	22
8	Warrington Town	12	6	4	2	23	18	22
9	Workington	14	6	3	5	24	24	21
10	Lancaster City	14	6	2	6	19	26	20
11	Bury	11	6	1	4	22	11	19
12	Alfreton Town	14	6	1	7	20	16	19
13	Whitby	13	5	1	7	19	33	16
14	Hyde Utd	14	4	3	7	15	25	15
15	Ashton Utd	12	3	5	4	14	13	14
16	Quorn	13	3	5	5	23	29	14
17	Stockton Town	14	3	3	8	17	25	12
18	Leek Town	12	2	5	5	24	25	11
19	Emley AFC	13	2	5	6	12	25	11
20	Bamber Bridge	13	2	4	7	16	32	10
21	FC United of Manchester	12	1	4	7	15	23	7
22	Ilkeston	14	2	1	11	8	34	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC United of Manchester	Quorn
Bamber Bridge	1-1 D	4-2 W
Workington	1-2 L	3-0 W
Hyde Utd	0-1 L	2-2 D
Gainsborough	0-3 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Quorn (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC United of Manchester

LLLDLLWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-1	6	0	D
10/10	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
06/10	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
12/09	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	4-1	5	5	W
31/08	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	1-1	3-4	4	2	L
29/08	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	–	2-3	–	–	L
25/08	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
22/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
18/08	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
15/08	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	–	0-3	–	–	L

Quorn

LDDLWLWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-2	0	8	D
10/10	Workington England Northern Premier League	1-0	3-0	7	6	W
06/10	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-2	7	6	D
03/10	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	2-0	4-2	7	1	W
12/09	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	–	1-4	–	–	L
31/08	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-0	5	1	W
29/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	3-6	–	–	L
25/08	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-2	4	0	D
22/08	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
18/08	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC United of Manchester vs Quorn?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC United of Manchester win (42%). Probabilities: FC United of Manchester 42%, draw 24%, Quorn 34%.

How many goals are expected in FC United of Manchester vs Quorn?

The model expects 3.69 goals (FC United of Manchester 1.95 · Quorn 1.74), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC United of Manchester vs Quorn?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.