Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 14/11, 16:00

Prediction: Alvechurch vs Hitchin

Team pages: Alvechurch · Hitchin

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

Alvechurch2.03

Hitchin1.01

1X2

60% 22% 18%

Alvechurch Draw Hitchin

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Alvechurch 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WWDDLDDDWW

Hitchin 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

DLWLLLWWLW

Head-to-head

Alvechurch 3–3 Hitchin (6 last)

Alvechurch4-1Hitchin
Hitchin0-1Alvechurch
Alvechurch2-1Hitchin
Hitchin2-0Alvechurch
Alvechurch1-3Hitchin
Hitchin2-1Alvechurch

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alvechurch 1553 · Hitchin 1486

	Alvechurch	Draw	Hitchin
Our model	60%	23%	17%
Market	61%	21%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alvechurch (rating 1553 vs 1486).
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alvechurch	Hitchin
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.2	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 1	0.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/33/33%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5	2.6 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	0.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.20

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.02

2 (+1.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
12:48 +20’	1.48	4.20	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Alvechurch 3–0–3 Hitchin

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/25 England Southern Premier League Central	Alvechurch	4-1	Hitchin
07/09/24 England Southern Premier League Central	Hitchin	0-1	Alvechurch
20/01/24 England Southern Premier League Central	Alvechurch	2-1	Hitchin
05/08/23 England Southern Premier League Central	Hitchin	2-0	Alvechurch
15/04/23 England Southern Premier League Central	Alvechurch	1-3	Hitchin
12/11/22 England Southern Premier League Central	Hitchin	2-1	Alvechurch

Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	18	13	2	3	47	23	41
2	Bromsgrove	16	11	4	1	34	18	37
3	Bury Town	18	11	3	4	32	27	36
4	Kettering	17	9	4	4	31	19	31
5	Peterborough Sports	17	8	6	3	33	26	30
6	Alvechurch	15	8	5	2	29	14	29
7	Anstey Nomads	16	8	5	3	33	24	29
8	Needham Market	16	8	4	4	36	24	28
9	Rushall Olympic	18	9	1	8	33	29	28
10	Halesowen	15	7	3	5	24	24	24
11	Stourbridge	16	6	4	6	21	23	22
12	Stratford Town	17	5	7	5	24	28	22
13	Racing Club Warwick	17	5	5	7	24	24	20
14	Redditch	15	4	6	5	23	23	18
15	Worcester City	14	4	4	6	17	18	16
16	Hitchin	16	4	4	8	20	24	16
17	Leiston	15	4	3	8	26	33	15
18	Bishop's Stortford	17	4	2	11	19	30	14
19	Banbury	17	3	5	9	19	31	14
20	Leamington	17	3	4	10	24	33	13
21	Leighton Town	15	1	3	11	16	35	6
22	Stamford	16	1	2	13	5	40	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alvechurch	Hitchin
Stourbridge	2-1 W	1-1 D
Stratford Town	4-4 D	1-3 L
Halesowen	1-1 D	1-2 L
Bury Town	0-1 L	5-1 W
Stamford	4-0 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Alvechurch (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alvechurch

WWDDLDDDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/11	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	2-0	2-1	4	2	W
31/10	Leiston England Southern Premier League Central	2-1	3-1	5	3	W
27/10	Anstey Nomads England Southern Premier League Central	1-2	2-2	6	9	D
24/10	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	2-2	4-4	8	3	D
13/10	Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
10/10	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-1	–	–	L
29/09	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-0	–	–	D
22/09	Anstey Nomads England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	2-2	5	5	D
12/09	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	–	4-0	–	–	W
31/08	Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-0	–	–	W

Hitchin

DLWLLLWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-1	–	–	W
31/10	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-3	–	–	L
24/10	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	5-1	–	–	W
20/10	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-0	–	–	W
17/10	Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	1-2	5	1	L
10/10	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
03/10	Leamington England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-4	6	0	L
29/09	Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	1-0	7	0	W
22/09	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	1-1	4	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alvechurch vs Hitchin?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alvechurch win (60%). Probabilities: Alvechurch 60%, draw 22%, Hitchin 18%.

How many goals are expected in Alvechurch vs Hitchin?

The model expects 3.05 goals (Alvechurch 2.03 · Hitchin 1.01), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Alvechurch vs Hitchin?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.