Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 20/10, 20:45

Prediction: Alvechurch vs Bromsgrove

Team pages: Alvechurch · Bromsgrove

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.47Total

Alvechurch1.15

Bromsgrove1.31

1X2

32% 28% 40%

Alvechurch Draw Bromsgrove

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Alvechurch 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWDDLD

Bromsgrove 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWDDWD

Head-to-head

Alvechurch 4–1–1 Bromsgrove (6 last)

Bromsgrove1-4Alvechurch
Alvechurch1-2Bromsgrove
Alvechurch2-1Bromsgrove
Bromsgrove0-2Alvechurch
Alvechurch1-0Bromsgrove
Bromsgrove1-1Alvechurch

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alvechurch 1579 · Bromsgrove 1559

	Alvechurch	Draw	Bromsgrove
Our model	31%	30%	39%
Market	33%	26%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Alvechurch: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alvechurch	Bromsgrove
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.5	1.6 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	13/75/13%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 3.5	1.6 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	2.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.40

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
11:24 +9’	2.70	3.40	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alvechurch 4–1–1 Bromsgrove

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/02/26 England Southern Premier League Central	Bromsgrove	1-4 HT 0-3	Alvechurch
12/08/25 England Southern Premier League Central	Alvechurch	1-2	Bromsgrove
11/03/25 England Southern Premier League Central	Alvechurch	2-1 HT 2-0	Bromsgrove
30/11/24 England Southern Premier League Central	Bromsgrove	0-2	Alvechurch
06/04/24 England Southern Premier League Central	Alvechurch	1-0	Bromsgrove
21/11/23 England Southern Premier League Central	Bromsgrove	1-1	Alvechurch

Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	11	10	1	0	34	11	31
2	Bury Town	12	10	0	2	21	13	30
3	Bromsgrove	12	8	3	1	21	11	27
4	Rushall Olympic	13	8	0	5	27	20	24
5	Peterborough Sports	13	6	5	2	25	18	23
6	Alvechurch	11	6	3	2	18	6	21
7	Needham Market	12	6	2	4	26	18	20
8	Kettering	11	5	4	2	18	9	19
9	Anstey Nomads	11	5	4	2	20	16	19
10	Halesowen	10	5	2	3	12	11	17
11	Stourbridge	12	4	4	4	14	16	16
12	Redditch	11	3	5	3	17	16	14
13	Racing Club Warwick	12	3	5	4	15	16	14
14	Leiston	10	3	3	4	17	17	12
15	Stratford Town	12	2	5	5	12	20	11
16	Leamington	12	2	4	6	16	20	10
17	Bishop's Stortford	11	3	1	7	13	20	10
18	Banbury	12	2	4	6	15	23	10
19	Worcester City	11	1	4	6	8	16	7
20	Hitchin	12	1	4	7	8	19	7
21	Leighton Town	11	1	2	8	13	25	5
22	Stamford	12	0	1	11	3	32	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alvechurch	Bromsgrove
Bury Town	0-1 L	1-0 W
Anstey Nomads	2-2 D	1-2 L
Bishop's Stortford	3-0 W	3-0 W
Worcester City	3-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Alvechurch (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alvechurch

WWWWWWDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
10/10	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-1	–	–	L
29/09	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-0	–	–	D
22/09	Anstey Nomads England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	2-2	5	5	D
12/09	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	–	4-0	–	–	W
31/08	Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-0	–	–	W
29/08	Racing Club Warwick England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-0	–	–	W
22/08	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-0	–	–	W
15/08	Needham Market England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-0	–	–	W
11/08	Worcester City England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-1	–	–	W

Bromsgrove

LWWWWWDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
13/10	Kettering England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	2-1	11	4	W
10/10	Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D
29/09	Leamington England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
22/09	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	3-2	3	3	W
12/09	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
31/08	Worcester City England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
29/08	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	3-0	6	2	W
22/08	Redditch England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	2-1	3	1	W
15/08	Anstey Nomads England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alvechurch vs Bromsgrove?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Bromsgrove win (40%). Probabilities: Alvechurch 32%, draw 28%, Bromsgrove 40%.

How many goals are expected in Alvechurch vs Bromsgrove?

The model expects 2.47 goals (Alvechurch 1.15 · Bromsgrove 1.31), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Alvechurch vs Bromsgrove?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.