Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 13/10, 20:45

Prediction: Bishop's Stortford vs Real Bedford

Team pages: Bishop's Stortford · Real Bedford

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.64Total

Bishop's Stortford1.28

Real Bedford2.36

1X2

19% 21% 61%

Bishop's Stortford Draw Real Bedford

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Bishop's Stortford 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLLWWWLL

Real Bedford 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWD

Head-to-head

Bishop's Stortford 1–1–2 Real Bedford (4 last)

Real Bedford4-0Bishop's Stortford
Bishop's Stortford0-5Real Bedford
Bishop's Stortford1-0Real Bedford
Real Bedford1-1Bishop's Stortford

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bishop's Stortford 1430 · Real Bedford 1609

	Bishop's Stortford	Draw	Real Bedford
Our model	19%	21%	61%
Market	19%	21%	61%

Estimated total (ours) 3.64 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Bedford (rating 1430 vs 1609).
H2H favours Real Bedford: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bishop's Stortford	Real Bedford
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.6	3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 1	1.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/33/67%	44/56/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.7 / 2.3	3.8 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.80

X4.33

21.48

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)2.00

2 (-1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.80 → 4.80	Bet365 4.80
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:53 +11’	4.80	4.33	1.48

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bishop's Stortford 1–1–2 Real Bedford

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 England Southern Premier League Central	Real Bedford	4-0 HT 1-0	Bishop's Stortford
17/02/26 England Southern Premier League Central	Bishop's Stortford	0-5 HT 0-1	Real Bedford
02/09/25 England FA Cup Qualification	Bishop's Stortford	1-0	Real Bedford
30/08/25 England FA Cup Qualification	Real Bedford	1-1 HT 1-0	Bishop's Stortford

Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	10	9	1	0	30	11	28
2	Bury Town	10	9	0	1	19	8	27
3	Bromsgrove	10	7	2	1	18	9	23
4	Rushall Olympic	11	7	0	4	22	17	21
5	Alvechurch	10	6	2	2	17	5	20
6	Kettering	10	5	4	1	17	7	19
7	Peterborough Sports	11	5	4	2	20	15	19
8	Anstey Nomads	10	4	4	2	17	14	16
9	Needham Market	10	4	2	4	19	17	14
10	Redditch	10	3	4	3	15	14	13
11	Halesowen	8	4	1	3	9	9	13
12	Stourbridge	10	3	4	3	11	13	13
13	Leiston	10	3	3	4	17	17	12
14	Racing Club Warwick	11	2	5	4	11	14	11
15	Bishop's Stortford	10	3	1	6	11	16	10
16	Leamington	10	2	3	5	13	16	9
17	Banbury	10	2	3	5	12	18	9
18	Stratford Town	10	2	3	5	11	19	9
19	Worcester City	10	1	4	5	7	13	7
20	Hitchin	11	1	4	6	7	17	7
21	Leighton Town	10	1	2	7	13	22	5
22	Stamford	10	0	0	10	3	28	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bishop's Stortford	Real Bedford
Redditch	1-3 L	2-1 W
Leamington	3-1 W	4-2 W
Bromsgrove	0-3 L	1-1 D
Halesowen	0-1 L	2-0 W
Leiston	1-3 L	3-2 W
Banbury	0-0 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Real Bedford (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bishop's Stortford

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Redditch England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-3	–	–	L
29/09	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	1-2	1	3	L
19/09	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-0	–	–	W
12/09	Leamington England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-1	–	–	W
31/08	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-0	–	–	W
29/08	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	0-3	4	2	L
22/08	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-3	–	–	L
15/08	Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-1	–	–	L
11/08	Leiston England Southern Premier League Central	0-2	1-3	2	3	L
08/08	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-0	–	–	D

Real Bedford

WWWWWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D
29/09	Leiston England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	3-2	10	5	W
22/09	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	2-1	4-1	8	4	W
12/09	Redditch England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
31/08	Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central	3-0	3-2	3	5	W
29/08	Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
22/08	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	2-0	6-1	9	5	W
15/08	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	3-1	7	1	W
11/08	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	2-0	2-0	4	0	W
08/08	Leamington England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	4-2	9	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bishop's Stortford vs Real Bedford?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Real Bedford win (61%). Probabilities: Bishop's Stortford 19%, draw 21%, Real Bedford 61%.

How many goals are expected in Bishop's Stortford vs Real Bedford?

The model expects 3.64 goals (Bishop's Stortford 1.28 · Real Bedford 2.36), with a 56% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Bishop's Stortford vs Real Bedford?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.