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Football · Colombia Cup · 21/07, 17:00

Prediction: Independiente Santa Fe vs Union Magdalena

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.89Total
Independiente Santa Fe2.13
Union Magdalena0.76
1X2
68% 20% 11%
Independiente Santa Fe Draw Union Magdalena
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Independiente Santa Fe 5-4-1 (W-D-L)
WLWDDWDWDW
Union Magdalena 5-3-2 (W-D-L)
WWLWDWLWDD
Head-to-head
Independiente Santa Fe 4–2–0 Union Magdalena (6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Independiente Santa Fe 1560 · Union Magdalena 1530
Independiente Santa FeDrawUnion Magdalena
Our model68%21%11%
Market69%20%12%
Estimated total (ours) 2.89 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

  • H2H favours Independiente Santa Fe: 4-2-0.
  • Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

Independiente Santa FeUnion Magdalena
Goals for / against (FT)1.6 / 0.81.7 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)0.4 / 0.10.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)30/60/10%40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)0.7 / 3.12.6 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)4.3 / 05.5 / 0.2

Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Santa Fe 4–2–0 Union Magdalena

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DateHomeScoreAway
14/09/25
Colombia Primera A
Independiente Santa Fe2-0
HT 0-0
Union Magdalena
31/03/25
Colombia Primera A
Union Magdalena0-1
HT 0-0
Independiente Santa Fe
20/08/23
Colombia Primera A
Union Magdalena2-2
HT 2-0
Independiente Santa Fe
26/02/23
Colombia Primera A
Independiente Santa Fe0-0
HT 0-0
Union Magdalena
25/09/22
Colombia Primera A
Union Magdalena0-2
HT 0-0
Independiente Santa Fe
04/04/22
Colombia Primera A
Independiente Santa Fe1-0
HT 0-0
Union Magdalena

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Independiente Santa Fe

WLWDDWDWDW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
28/05 Penarol
Copa Libertadores
 1-0 1-0 24 W
24/05 Junior
Colombia Primera A
 0-0 0-0 35 D
20/05 Platense
Copa Libertadores
 0-0 2-1 58 W
17/05 Junior
Colombia Primera A
 0-1 1-1 64 D
13/05 America de Cali
Colombia Primera A
 2-0 4-0 25 W
10/05 America de Cali
Colombia Primera A
 1-0 1-1 22 D
07/05 Corinthians
Copa Libertadores
 0-0 1-1 43 D
03/05 Internacional de Bogota
Colombia Primera A
 0-0 3-1 44 W
30/04 Platense
Copa Libertadores
 0-0 1-2 15 L
24/04 Deportivo Pasto
Colombia Primera A
 0-0 2-1 23 W

Union Magdalena

WWLWDWLWDD

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
21/05 Bogota FC
Colombia Primera B
 0-0 0-0 45 D
18/05 Barranquilla FC
Colombia Primera B
 0-0 1-1 68 D
12/05 Real Cartagena
Colombia Primera B
 1-0 3-0 66 W
09/05 Real Cartagena
Colombia Primera B
 1-2 1-2 48 L
04/05 Barranquilla FC
Colombia Primera B
 1-0 2-0 66 W
28/04 Bogota FC
Colombia Primera B
 1-1 1-1 32 D
18/04 Atletico Cali FC
Colombia Primera B
 1-1 3-1 32 W
13/04 Internacional FC de Palmira
Colombia Primera B
 0-2 0-2 54 L
09/04 Envigado FC
Colombia Primera B
 2-1 4-2 107 W
30/03 Independiente Yumbo
Colombia Primera B
 1-0 2-0 19 W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Independiente Santa Fe vs Union Magdalena?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente Santa Fe win (68%). Probabilities: Independiente Santa Fe 68%, draw 20%, Union Magdalena 11%.

How many goals are expected in Independiente Santa Fe vs Union Magdalena?

The model expects 2.89 goals (Independiente Santa Fe 2.13 · Union Magdalena 0.76), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Independiente Santa Fe vs Union Magdalena?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.