Football · Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur · 15/11, 16:00

Prediction: Avenir Beggen vs FC The Belval Belvaux

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Avenir Beggen1.64

FC The Belval Belvaux1.35

1X2

44% 26% 31%

Avenir Beggen Draw FC The Belval Belvaux

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Avenir Beggen 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDLDWWLLLW

FC The Belval Belvaux 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDDLLDWD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Avenir Beggen 1498 · FC The Belval Belvaux 1497

	Avenir Beggen	Draw	FC The Belval Belvaux
Our model	43%	26%	30%
Market	44%	25%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Avenir Beggen	FC The Belval Belvaux
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	1.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/0/50%	0/100/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	4 / 6	3 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 1	4.5 / 1.5

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.60

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
18:11 +8’	2.05	3.60	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Standings · Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Mamer 32	11	7	4	0	17	8	25
2	Lorentzweiler	11	6	4	1	21	14	22
3	FC Rodange	11	6	3	2	24	11	21
4	CS Fola Esch	11	6	3	2	19	9	21
5	UT Petange	11	5	4	2	30	25	19
6	FC The Belval Belvaux	11	4	4	3	15	16	16
7	SC Bettembourg	11	4	3	4	23	17	15
8	FC Berdenia Berbourg	11	4	3	4	17	13	15
9	FC Mondercange	11	4	3	4	19	20	15
10	US Feulen	11	4	2	5	20	21	14
11	Avenir Beggen	11	3	3	5	15	14	12
12	FC Luxemburg City	11	3	3	5	15	18	12
13	Koeppchen Wormeldange	11	3	2	6	17	23	11
14	Jeunesse Canach	11	3	2	6	19	29	11
15	Union Remich/Bous	11	2	2	7	10	25	8
16	FC Marisca Mersch	11	1	1	9	8	26	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Avenir Beggen	FC The Belval Belvaux
SC Bettembourg	2-0 W	1-4 L
US Feulen	1-2 L	0-0 D
Koeppchen Wormeldange	1-2 L	1-0 W
Lorentzweiler	1-2 L	1-1 D
Jeunesse Canach	2-0 W	3-1 W
FC Marisca Mersch	3-1 W	1-0 W
CS Fola Esch	1-2 L	0-3 L
FC Mamer 32	1-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 5 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Avenir Beggen

LDLDWWLLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	SC Bettembourg Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	2-0	–	–	W
25/10	US Feulen Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	1-2	–	–	L
18/10	Koeppchen Wormeldange Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	1-2	–	–	L
14/10	Lorentzweiler Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	0-1	1-2	7	6	L
11/10	Jeunesse Canach Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	2-0	–	–	W
04/10	FC Marisca Mersch Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	1-0	3-1	5	7	W
13/09	Union Remich/Bous Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	2-2	–	–	D
06/09	CS Fola Esch Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	1-2	–	–	L
30/08	FC Berdenia Berbourg Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	1-1	–	–	D
23/08	FC Mamer 32 Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	1-2	–	–	L

FC The Belval Belvaux

WWLDDLLDWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	US Feulen Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	0-0	–	–	D
25/10	Jeunesse Canach Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	3-1	–	–	W
18/10	Lorentzweiler Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/10	CS Fola Esch Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	0-3	–	–	L
04/10	FC Mamer 32 Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	0-0	1-2	9	7	L
27/09	UT Petange Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	2-2	3-3	2	5	D
13/09	FC Mondercange Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	2-2	–	–	D
06/09	SC Bettembourg Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	1-4	–	–	L
30/08	Koeppchen Wormeldange Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	1-0	–	–	W
23/08	FC Marisca Mersch Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Avenir Beggen vs FC The Belval Belvaux?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Avenir Beggen win (44%). Probabilities: Avenir Beggen 44%, draw 26%, FC The Belval Belvaux 31%.

How many goals are expected in Avenir Beggen vs FC The Belval Belvaux?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Avenir Beggen 1.64 · FC The Belval Belvaux 1.35), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Avenir Beggen vs FC The Belval Belvaux?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.