Football · Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur · 15/11, 16:00

Prediction: Lorentzweiler vs FC Berdenia Berbourg

Team pages: FC Berdenia Berbourg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.01Total

Lorentzweiler1.71

FC Berdenia Berbourg1.3

1X2

47% 25% 29%

Lorentzweiler Draw FC Berdenia Berbourg

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Lorentzweiler 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DDDWWWWDLW

FC Berdenia Berbourg 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDWWDWWLLL

Head-to-head

Lorentzweiler 1–3 FC Berdenia Berbourg (4 last)

Lorentzweiler2-0FC Berdenia Berbourg
FC Berdenia Berbourg4-0Lorentzweiler
FC Berdenia Berbourg2-0Lorentzweiler
Lorentzweiler1-3FC Berdenia Berbourg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lorentzweiler 1524 · FC Berdenia Berbourg 1499

	Lorentzweiler	Draw	FC Berdenia Berbourg
Our model	46%	26%	28%
Market	47%	24%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.01 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Berdenia Berbourg: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lorentzweiler	FC Berdenia Berbourg
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.3	1.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0	1 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	100/0/0%	100/0/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5	0 / 1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0	5 / 1

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.75

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:46 +33’	1.91	3.75	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Lorentzweiler 1–0–3 FC Berdenia Berbourg

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	Lorentzweiler	2-0	FC Berdenia Berbourg
03/12/25 Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	FC Berdenia Berbourg	4-0	Lorentzweiler
05/05/24 Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	FC Berdenia Berbourg	2-0	Lorentzweiler
26/11/23 Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	Lorentzweiler	1-3	FC Berdenia Berbourg

Standings · Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Mamer 32	11	7	4	0	17	8	25
2	Lorentzweiler	11	6	4	1	21	14	22
3	FC Rodange	11	6	3	2	24	11	21
4	CS Fola Esch	11	6	3	2	19	9	21
5	UT Petange	11	5	4	2	30	25	19
6	FC The Belval Belvaux	11	4	4	3	15	16	16
7	SC Bettembourg	11	4	3	4	23	17	15
8	FC Berdenia Berbourg	11	4	3	4	17	13	15
9	FC Mondercange	11	4	3	4	19	20	15
10	US Feulen	11	4	2	5	20	21	14
11	Avenir Beggen	11	3	3	5	15	14	12
12	FC Luxemburg City	11	3	3	5	15	18	12
13	Koeppchen Wormeldange	11	3	2	6	17	23	11
14	Jeunesse Canach	11	3	2	6	19	29	11
15	Union Remich/Bous	11	2	2	7	10	25	8
16	FC Marisca Mersch	11	1	1	9	8	26	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lorentzweiler	FC Berdenia Berbourg
FC Luxemburg City	1-0 W	1-2 L
Avenir Beggen	2-1 W	1-1 D
CS Fola Esch	1-0 W	0-1 L
FC Mamer 32	0-0 D	0-1 L
UT Petange	3-3 D	2-3 L
FC Mondercange	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Lorentzweiler (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lorentzweiler

DDDWWWWDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	FC Luxemburg City Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	1-0	–	–	W
25/10	FC Rodange Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	1-5	–	–	L
18/10	FC The Belval Belvaux Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	1-1	–	–	D
14/10	Avenir Beggen Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
11/10	US Feulen Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	3-2	–	–	W
04/10	Jeunesse Canach Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	6-0	–	–	W
13/09	CS Fola Esch Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	1-0	–	–	W
06/09	FC Mamer 32 Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	0-0	–	–	D
30/08	UT Petange Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	3-3	–	–	D
23/08	FC Mondercange Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	1-1	–	–	D

FC Berdenia Berbourg

LDWWDWWLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	CS Fola Esch Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	0-1	–	–	L
25/10	FC Mamer 32 Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	0-1	–	–	L
18/10	UT Petange Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	2-3	–	–	L
11/10	FC Mondercange Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	1-0	–	–	W
04/10	SC Bettembourg Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	3-2	–	–	W
25/09	Koeppchen Wormeldange Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	1-0	1-1	1	6	D
13/09	FC Marisca Mersch Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	4-1	–	–	W
06/09	Union Remich/Bous Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	3-0	–	–	W
30/08	Avenir Beggen Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	1-1	–	–	D
23/08	FC Luxemburg City Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lorentzweiler vs FC Berdenia Berbourg?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lorentzweiler win (47%). Probabilities: Lorentzweiler 47%, draw 25%, FC Berdenia Berbourg 29%.

How many goals are expected in Lorentzweiler vs FC Berdenia Berbourg?

The model expects 3.01 goals (Lorentzweiler 1.71 · FC Berdenia Berbourg 1.3), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Lorentzweiler vs FC Berdenia Berbourg?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.