Football · Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur · 15/11, 16:00

Prediction: FC Mamer 32 vs FC Marisca Mersch

Team pages: FC Marisca Mersch

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

FC Mamer 322.12

FC Marisca Mersch0.91

1X2

65% 20% 15%

FC Mamer 32 Draw FC Marisca Mersch

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Mamer 32 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WDDDWWWWWW

FC Marisca Mersch 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLLLLW

Head-to-head

FC Mamer 32 3–1–2 FC Marisca Mersch (6 last)

FC Mamer 320-1FC Marisca Mersch
FC Marisca Mersch1-5FC Mamer 32
FC Marisca Mersch2-1FC Mamer 32
FC Mamer 323-2FC Marisca Mersch
FC Mamer 320-0FC Marisca Mersch
FC Marisca Mersch0-2FC Mamer 32

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Mamer 32 1566 · FC Marisca Mersch 1411

	FC Mamer 32	Draw	FC Marisca Mersch
Our model	64%	22%	14%
Market	66%	19%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Mamer 32 (rating 1566 vs 1411).
H2H favours FC Mamer 32: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Mamer 32	FC Marisca Mersch
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.6	0.7 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 0	0 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/100/0%	0/0/100%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.7 / 2	3 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.7	5 / 1

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.75

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.93

2 (+1.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
18:10 +8’	1.36	4.75	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Mamer 32 3–1–2 FC Marisca Mersch

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/04/25 Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	FC Mamer 32	0-1	FC Marisca Mersch
17/11/24 Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	FC Marisca Mersch	1-5	FC Mamer 32
26/02/23 Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	FC Marisca Mersch	2-1	FC Mamer 32
11/09/22 Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	FC Mamer 32	3-2	FC Marisca Mersch
13/02/22 Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	FC Mamer 32	0-0	FC Marisca Mersch
22/08/21 Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	FC Marisca Mersch	0-2	FC Mamer 32

Standings · Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Mamer 32	11	7	4	0	17	8	25
2	Lorentzweiler	11	6	4	1	21	14	22
3	FC Rodange	11	6	3	2	24	11	21
4	CS Fola Esch	11	6	3	2	19	9	21
5	UT Petange	11	5	4	2	30	25	19
6	FC The Belval Belvaux	11	4	4	3	15	16	16
7	SC Bettembourg	11	4	3	4	23	17	15
8	FC Berdenia Berbourg	11	4	3	4	17	13	15
9	FC Mondercange	11	4	3	4	19	20	15
10	US Feulen	11	4	2	5	20	21	14
11	Avenir Beggen	11	3	3	5	15	14	12
12	FC Luxemburg City	11	3	3	5	15	18	12
13	Koeppchen Wormeldange	11	3	2	6	17	23	11
14	Jeunesse Canach	11	3	2	6	19	29	11
15	Union Remich/Bous	11	2	2	7	10	25	8
16	FC Marisca Mersch	11	1	1	9	8	26	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Mamer 32	FC Marisca Mersch
Union Remich/Bous	1-0 W	0-1 L
FC Berdenia Berbourg	1-0 W	1-4 L
FC Luxemburg City	2-1 W	1-1 D
FC Rodange	2-0 W	1-3 L
FC The Belval Belvaux	2-1 W	0-1 L
Avenir Beggen	2-1 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: FC Mamer 32 (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Mamer 32

WDDDWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Union Remich/Bous Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	1-0	–	–	W
25/10	FC Berdenia Berbourg Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	1-0	–	–	W
18/10	FC Luxemburg City Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	0-0	2-1	3	6	W
11/10	FC Rodange Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	2-0	–	–	W
04/10	FC The Belval Belvaux Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	0-0	2-1	1	7	W
27/09	US Feulen Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	0-0	2-0	2	3	W
13/09	Jeunesse Canach Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	3-3	–	–	D
06/09	Lorentzweiler Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	0-0	–	–	D
30/08	CS Fola Esch Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	0-0	–	–	D
23/08	Avenir Beggen Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	2-1	–	–	W

FC Marisca Mersch

LLDLLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	UT Petange Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	2-1	–	–	W
25/10	FC Mondercange Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	0-3	–	–	L
18/10	SC Bettembourg Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	0-3	–	–	L
11/10	Koeppchen Wormeldange Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	1-3	–	–	L
04/10	Avenir Beggen Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	0-1	1-3	3	7	L
27/09	Union Remich/Bous Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
13/09	FC Berdenia Berbourg Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	1-4	–	–	L
06/09	FC Luxemburg City Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	1-1	–	–	D
30/08	FC Rodange Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	1-3	–	–	L
23/08	FC The Belval Belvaux Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	–	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Mamer 32 vs FC Marisca Mersch?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Mamer 32 win (65%). Probabilities: FC Mamer 32 65%, draw 20%, FC Marisca Mersch 15%.

How many goals are expected in FC Mamer 32 vs FC Marisca Mersch?

The model expects 3.03 goals (FC Mamer 32 2.12 · FC Marisca Mersch 0.91), with a 57% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Mamer 32 vs FC Marisca Mersch?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.