Football · Scotland League Challenge Cup · 11/08, 20:45

Prediction: Berwick Rangers vs Hearts B

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.24Total

Berwick Rangers2.39

Hearts B1.86

1X2

49% 21% 29%

Berwick Rangers Draw Hearts B

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Berwick Rangers 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Hearts B 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Berwick Rangers 2–2 Hearts B (4 last)

Hearts B1-3Berwick Rangers
Berwick Rangers2-0Hearts B
Hearts B6-1Berwick Rangers
Hearts B6-0Berwick Rangers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Berwick Rangers 1523 · Hearts B 1391

	Berwick Rangers	Draw	Hearts B
Our model	49%	21%	30%
Market	49%	22%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 4.24 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Berwick Rangers (rating 1523 vs 1391).
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Berwick Rangers	Hearts B
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.8	0.8 / 2.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.3	0.3 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.2	1.4 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.3	3.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.85

X4.10

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.80

Under 3.752.00

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:01 +6’	1.85	4.10	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Berwick Rangers 2–0–2 Hearts B

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/10/25 Scotland Lowland League	Hearts B	1-3 HT 1-1	Berwick Rangers
02/09/25 Scotland Lowland League	Berwick Rangers	2-0 HT 0-0	Hearts B
16/08/24 Scotland Lowland League	Hearts B	6-1 HT 1-0	Berwick Rangers
17/10/23 Scotland Lowland League	Hearts B	6-0 HT 3-0	Berwick Rangers

Standings · Scotland League Challenge Cup

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Aberdeen B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Airdrieonians	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Alloa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Annan Athletic	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Banks O'Dee	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Berwick Rangers	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bonnyrigg Rose	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Celtic B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Clachnacuddin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Clyde	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Clydebank FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cove Rangers	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cowdenbeath	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cumbernauld Colts	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Dumbarton	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Dundee B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Dundee Utd B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	East Fife	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	East Kilbride	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Edinburgh	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Elgin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Forfar	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Formartine United	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fraserburgh	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gala Fairydean	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rangers B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hamilton	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hearts B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hibernian B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kelty Hearts	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kilmarnock B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Montrose	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Motherwell B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Peterhead	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Queen of South	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ross County	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Spartans	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	St Mirren B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stirling	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stranraer	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Berwick Rangers	Hearts B
East Stirlingshire	3-1 W	2-4 L
Cumbernauld Colts	2-3 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Berwick Rangers (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Berwick Rangers

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/02	East Stirlingshire Scotland Lowland League	0-0	3-1	4	4	W
10/02	Bonnyrigg Rose Scotland Lowland League Cup	0-2	1-2	8	5	L
23/01	Celtic B Scotland Lowland League	0-2	0-3	5	3	L
22/11	Gretna 2008 Scotland Lowland League	0-1	3-2	2	9	W
01/11	Linlithgow Rose Scotland Lowland League	1-1	3-1	3	5	W
14/10	Hearts B Scotland Lowland League	1-1	3-1	5	7	W
27/09	Nairn County Scotland FA Cup	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
20/09	Bonnyrigg Rose Scotland Lowland League	1-2	4-3	7	7	W
02/09	Hearts B Scotland Lowland League	0-0	2-0	1	8	W
23/08	Cumbernauld Colts Scotland Lowland League	0-3	2-3	3	1	L

Hearts B

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/04	Cowdenbeath Scotland Lowland League	0-1	0-3	2	1	L
10/04	Albion Scotland Lowland League	0-0	3-0	5	3	W
03/04	East Stirlingshire Scotland Lowland League	0-3	2-4	5	3	L
20/03	Clydebank FC Scotland Lowland League	0-4	0-8	1	4	L
27/02	Cumbernauld Colts Scotland Lowland League	0-1	0-3	5	4	L
20/02	Broxburn Athletic Scotland Lowland League	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
13/02	Bo'ness United FC Scotland Lowland League	2-0	2-1	1	6	W
24/01	Tranent Scotland Lowland League	0-2	0-2	3	6	L
16/12	St Johnstone Scotland League Challenge Cup	0-0	0-1	1	0	L
13/12	Caledonian Braves Scotland Lowland League	1-4	1-5	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Berwick Rangers vs Hearts B?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Berwick Rangers win (49%). Probabilities: Berwick Rangers 49%, draw 21%, Hearts B 29%.

How many goals are expected in Berwick Rangers vs Hearts B?

The model expects 4.24 goals (Berwick Rangers 2.39 · Hearts B 1.86), with a 54% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Berwick Rangers vs Hearts B?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.