Football · Germany Bundesliga Women · 18/10, 16:00

Prediction: Werder Bremen (W) vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)

Team pages: Werder Bremen (W) · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Werder Bremen (W)1.64

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)1.16

1X2

48% 25% 27%

Werder Bremen (W) Draw TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Werder Bremen (W) 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWLWDL

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDWDLLLLWW

Head-to-head

Werder Bremen (W) 2–2–2 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) (6 last)

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)0-0Werder Bremen (W)
Werder Bremen (W)2-1TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)
Werder Bremen (W)1-0TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)1-0Werder Bremen (W)
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)1-1Werder Bremen (W)
Werder Bremen (W)1-3TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Werder Bremen (W) 1545 · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) 1546

	Werder Bremen (W)	Draw	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)
Our model	47%	27%	26%
Market	49%	24%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Werder Bremen (W)	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.4	1.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.3	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/20/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5	1.2 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.70

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 13:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 1.85▼	Bet365 1.85
X	3.60 → 3.70▲	Pinn 3.74
2	2.88 → 3.30▲	Pinn 3.75 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 9.4%

Time*	1	X	2
07:06 +11’	2.05	3.60	2.88
11:18 +5’	2.30▲	3.50▼	2.55▼
13:19 +9’	1.85▼	3.70▲	3.30▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:13 +4’	1.88	3.60	3.30
09:25 +55’	1.90▲	3.69▲	3.38▲
14:11 +19’	1.79▼	3.74▲	3.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Werder Bremen (W) 2–2–2 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/02/26 Germany Bundesliga Women	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Werder Bremen (W)
21/09/25 Germany Bundesliga Women	Werder Bremen (W)	2-1 HT 1-0	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)
10/03/25 Germany Bundesliga Women	Werder Bremen (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)
06/10/24 Germany Bundesliga Women	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Werder Bremen (W)
10/02/24 Germany Bundesliga Women	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)	1-1 HT 1-1	Werder Bremen (W)
30/09/23 Germany Bundesliga Women	Werder Bremen (W)	1-3 HT 0-1	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)

Standings · Germany Bundesliga Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bayern Munich (W)	6	6	0	0	19	6	18
2	Wolfsburg (W)	6	5	0	1	18	8	15
3	Eintracht Frankfurt (W)	6	4	1	1	11	6	13
4	Bayer Leverkusen (W)	6	4	0	2	12	9	12
5	Werder Bremen (W)	6	3	1	2	10	8	10
6	Freiburg (W)	6	3	1	2	8	7	10
7	FC Cologne (W)	6	3	0	3	10	8	9
8	VfB Stuttgart (W)	6	2	2	2	8	12	8
9	RB Leipzig (W)	6	2	1	3	10	9	7
10	Union Berlin (W)	6	2	0	4	8	11	6
10	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)	6	2	0	4	8	11	6
12	Hamburger SV (W)	6	1	2	3	9	8	5
13	Nurnberg (W)	6	0	2	4	9	21	2
14	Mainz (W)	6	0	0	6	3	19	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Werder Bremen (W)	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)
Bayer Leverkusen (W)	2-3 L	1-2 L
VfB Stuttgart (W)	1-1 D	1-2 L
Wolfsburg (W)	2-3 L	2-1 W
RB Leipzig (W)	2-0 W	0-0 D
FC Cologne (W)	0-3 L	0-1 L
Bayern Munich (W)	0-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Werder Bremen (W)

LLWWWWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	Bayer Leverkusen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	2-0	2-3	2	8	L
21/09	VfB Stuttgart (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	1-0	1-1	8	3	D
11/09	Hamburger SV (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
06/09	Wolfsburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	1-0	2-3	5	3	L
30/08	RB Leipzig (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	2-0	2-0	11	3	W
24/08	Mainz (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	2-1	2-1	4	6	W
17/05	Bayer Leverkusen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	1-0	3-1	2	3	W
10/05	Carl Zeiss Jena (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	4-0	7-0	6	1	W
02/05	FC Cologne (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	0-2	0-3	5	5	L
29/04	Bayern Munich (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	0-0	0-2	4	4	L

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)

WDWDLLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Nurnberg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	0-1	2-1	6	3	W
18/09	Wolfsburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
13/09	Eintracht Frankfurt (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	0-1	2-4	1	5	L
04/09	Bayer Leverkusen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
28/08	FC Cologne (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	0-0	0-1	1	3	L
23/08	VfB Stuttgart (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
17/05	RB Leipzig (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
10/05	Union Berlin (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	2-0	2-0	1	2	W
06/05	Bayern Munich (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	1-0	1-1	2	2	D
27/04	FC Cologne (W) Germany Bundesliga Women	4-1	6-2	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Werder Bremen (W) vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Werder Bremen (W) win (48%). Probabilities: Werder Bremen (W) 48%, draw 25%, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) 27%.

How many goals are expected in Werder Bremen (W) vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Werder Bremen (W) 1.64 · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) 1.16), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Werder Bremen (W) vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.