Football · Aruba Division Di Honor · 18/07, 02:00

Prediction: SV Britannia vs SV Sporting Aruba

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

SV Britannia1.81

SV Sporting Aruba1.04

1X2

55% 24% 21%

SV Britannia Draw SV Sporting Aruba

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

SV Britannia 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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SV Sporting Aruba 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

SV Britannia 1–2–1 SV Sporting Aruba (4 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SV Britannia 1543 · SV Sporting Aruba 1488

	SV Britannia	Draw	SV Sporting Aruba
Our model	54%	25%	21%
Market	56%	22%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SV Britannia (rating 1543 vs 1488).
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SV Britannia	SV Sporting Aruba
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.9	1.3 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.7	1 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.9	3.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.61

X4.00

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.02

2 (+1)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:51 +17’	1.61	4.00	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SV Britannia 1–2–1 SV Sporting Aruba

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/06/26 Aruba Division Di Honor	SV Britannia	0-0 HT 0-0	SV Sporting Aruba
03/05/26 Aruba Division Di Honor	SV Sporting Aruba	2-1 HT 1-0	SV Britannia
14/03/26 Aruba Division Di Honor	SV Britannia	1-0 HT 1-0	SV Sporting Aruba
24/11/25 Aruba Division Di Honor	SV Britannia	1-1 HT 1-1	SV Sporting Aruba

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SV Britannia	SV Sporting Aruba
SV La Fama	2-2 D	2-2 D
SV Dakota	1-0 W	1-1 D
Bubali SC	3-0 W	2-2 D
Racing Club Aruba	3-2 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: SV Britannia (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

SV Britannia

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/06	SV La Fama Aruba Division Di Honor	1-1	2-2	4	5	D
10/06	SV Sporting Aruba Aruba Division Di Honor	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
30/05	SV Dakota Aruba Division Di Honor	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
24/05	SV Dakota Aruba Division Di Honor	0-1	2-1	2	4	W
17/05	Bubali SC Aruba Silver League	1-0	3-0	3	4	W
10/05	SV La Fama Aruba Division Di Honor	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
03/05	SV Sporting Aruba Aruba Division Di Honor	0-1	1-2	7	6	L
26/04	Racing Club Aruba Aruba Division Di Honor	2-0	3-2	2	7	W
22/03	SV La Fama Aruba Division Di Honor	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
14/03	SV Sporting Aruba Aruba Division Di Honor	1-0	1-0	5	6	W

SV Sporting Aruba

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/06	SV Dakota Aruba Division Di Honor	0-1	1-1	0	0	D
10/06	SV Britannia Aruba Division Di Honor	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
31/05	SV La Fama Aruba Division Di Honor	1-0	2-2	7	2	D
24/05	SV La Fama Aruba Division Di Honor	0-1	2-1	5	7	W
17/05	SV Dakota Aruba Division Di Honor	0-4	0-7	1	0	L
09/05	Racing Club Aruba Aruba Division Di Honor	1-1	3-2	4	6	W
03/05	SV Britannia Aruba Division Di Honor	1-0	2-1	3	6	W
26/04	Bubali SC Aruba Division Di Honor	0-1	2-2	8	6	D
19/04	SV La Fama Aruba Division Di Honor	1-1	1-3	2	2	L
12/04	SV Dakota Aruba Division Di Honor	0-0	0-3	1	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SV Britannia vs SV Sporting Aruba?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SV Britannia win (55%). Probabilities: SV Britannia 55%, draw 24%, SV Sporting Aruba 21%.

How many goals are expected in SV Britannia vs SV Sporting Aruba?

The model expects 2.86 goals (SV Britannia 1.81 · SV Sporting Aruba 1.04), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in SV Britannia vs SV Sporting Aruba?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.