Football · Greece Super League 1 · 21/11, 18:30

Prediction: Kalamata vs AEK Athens

Team pages: Kalamata · AEK Athens

Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.4Total
Kalamata0.95
AEK Athens2.45
1X2
12% 19% 69%
Kalamata Draw AEK Athens
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
0-2 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Kalamata 3-3-4 (W-D-L)
LLDWLWWLDD
AEK Athens 6-3-1 (W-D-L)
DWDWDWWWLW
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kalamata 1513 · AEK Athens 1526
KalamataDrawAEK Athens
Our model12%19%70%
Market12%19%69%
Estimated total (ours) 3.4 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

  • Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

KalamataAEK Athens
Goals for / against (FT)1.5 / 1.92.4 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)0.4 / 0.90.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)10/30/60%40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)1.4 / 2.53.3 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)5.4 / 0.33.9 / 0.6

Standings · Greece Super League 1

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Panathinaikos 10901 22527
2 Olympiacos 10721 16523
3 AEK Athens 9621 23620
4 PAOK Salonika 10613 191319
5 Aris Salonika 10613 161719
6 OFI Crete 10523 141217
7 Kifisias FC 10424 151514
8 Kalamata 10334 151912
9 Iraklis 1908 FC 10244 111410
10 Panetolikos 10307 8209
11 Asteras Tripolis 10145 9187
12 Atromitos Athinon 9135 9126
13 Levadiakos 10136 4136
14 Volos NFC 10037 7190

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentKalamataAEK Athens
Asteras Tripolis 1-1 D 1-1 D
Iraklis 1908 FC 1-1 D 4-0 W
Olympiacos 0-5 L 1-1 D
OFI Crete 4-3 W 3-0 W
Panathinaikos 0-1 L 0-2 L
Volos NFC 3-1 W 2-1 W
Panetolikos 0-2 L 5-0 W
Aris Salonika 2-3 L 5-0 W
Record vs common 2 W 2 D 4 L 5 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: AEK Athens (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kalamata

LLDWLWWLDD

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
08/11 Asteras Tripolis
Greece Super League 1
0-1 1-1 37 D
02/11 Iraklis 1908 FC
Greece Super League 1
0-0 1-1 43 D
25/10 Olympiacos
Greece Super League 1
0-2 0-5 15 L
18/10 OFI Crete
Greece Super League 1
2-0 4-3 16 W
12/10 PAOK Salonika
Greece Super League 1
1-1 3-1 24 W
20/09 Panathinaikos
Greece Super League 1
0-1 0-1 24 L
13/09 Volos NFC
Greece Super League 1
0-1 3-1 66 W
06/09 Atromitos Athinon
Greece Super League 1
0-1 1-1 27 D
29/08 Panetolikos
Greece Super League 1
0-1 0-2 38 L
22/08 Aris Salonika
Greece Super League 1
1-1 2-3 17 L

AEK Athens

DWDWDWWWLW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
08/11 Levadiakos
Greece Super League 1
0-1 2-1 104 W
01/11 Panathinaikos
Greece Super League 1
0-1 0-2 66 L
24/10 Panetolikos
Greece Super League 1
3-0 5-0 93 W
10/10 OFI Crete
Greece Super League 1
1-0 3-0 95 W
20/09 Volos NFC
Greece Super League 1
0-0 2-1 57 W
13/09 Asteras Tripolis
Greece Super League 1
1-1 1-1 53 D
05/09 Aris Salonika
Greece Super League 1
1-0 5-0 23 W
30/08 Kifisias FC
Greece Super League 1
0-0 1-1 27 D
22/08 Iraklis 1908 FC
Greece Super League 1
2-0 4-0 51 W
17/05 Olympiacos
Greece Super League 1
0-1 1-1 46 D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kalamata vs AEK Athens?

According to our model, the most likely result is an AEK Athens win (69%). Probabilities: Kalamata 12%, draw 19%, AEK Athens 69%.

How many goals are expected in Kalamata vs AEK Athens?

The model expects 3.4 goals (Kalamata 0.95 · AEK Athens 2.45), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Kalamata vs AEK Athens?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.